UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.222.65safe0.46–2.400.37–2.080.83–4.47safer0.21–2.650.14–2.310.35–4.95
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.519.19safe2.82–6.552.77–6.255.59–12.80safer2.33–7.042.30–6.724.63–13.75
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1512.8426.99safe10.23–18.089.28–16.4019.51–34.48safer9.14–19.178.32–17.3617.46–36.53
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction8.908.1617.05safe5.95–11.845.48–10.8411.43–22.68safer5.12–12.674.74–11.589.86–24.24
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.136.93safe1.91–5.681.48–4.793.39–10.46safer1.37–6.220.99–5.282.36–11.50
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.174.539.70safe2.96–7.382.53–6.535.49–13.91safer2.38–7.962.00–7.074.38–15.02
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.7249.70safe44.93–58.5142.91–56.48safer43.26–60.1841.24–58.15
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction455447902safe388–523380–513768–1036safer370–541363–531732–1071
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction75.7575.20safe71.72–79.7870.87–79.52safer70.43–81.0869.56–80.83
Fouls
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2213.5623.78safe7.38–13.0610.62–16.5018.00–29.56safer6.63–13.819.87–17.2516.49–31.07
Offsides
58%
18%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.621.684.30safe1.46–3.780.58–2.772.05–6.55safer1.16–4.080.30–3.061.46–7.14
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.244.09safe0.80–2.891.11–3.371.91–6.27safer0.53–3.160.82–3.661.35–6.82
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.176.16safe1.56–4.431.61–4.723.17–9.16safer1.17–4.821.19–5.152.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.35–4.95 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.68 2.82–6.55 2.33–7.04 | 4.51 2.77–6.25 2.30–6.72 | 9.19 5.59–12.80 4.63–13.75 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.15 10.23–18.08 9.14–19.17 | 12.84 9.28–16.40 8.32–17.36 | 26.99 19.51–34.48 17.46–36.53 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.90 5.95–11.84 5.12–12.67 | 8.16 5.48–10.84 4.74–11.58 | 17.05 11.43–22.68 9.86–24.24 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.13 1.48–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 6.93 3.39–10.46 2.36–11.50 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.96–7.38 2.38–7.96 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 2.00–7.07 | 9.70 5.49–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 51.72 44.93–58.51 43.26–60.18 | 49.70 42.91–56.48 41.24–58.15 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 455 388–523 370–541 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 902 768–1036 732–1071 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.75 71.72–79.78 70.43–81.08 | 75.20 70.87–79.52 69.56–80.83 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 10.22 7.38–13.06 6.63–13.81 | 13.56 10.62–16.50 9.87–17.25 | 23.78 18.00–29.56 16.49–31.07 | 21% 72% |
| Offsides | 2.62 1.46–3.78 1.16–4.08 | 1.68 0.58–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 4.30 2.05–6.55 1.46–7.14 | 58% 18% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.80–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.09 1.91–6.27 1.35–6.82 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.19–5.15 | 6.16 3.17–9.16 2.36–9.97 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.