UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jesus Gil Manzano
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.562.82safe0.30–2.220.70–2.421.00–4.64safer0.04–2.480.45–2.670.49–5.15actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.735.208.93safe1.88–5.593.49–6.905.37–12.49safer1.38–6.093.02–7.374.40–13.46actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5213.4925.01safe7.81–15.2210.11–16.8717.93–32.09safer6.78–16.259.18–17.8015.96–34.05actual11.008.0019.00
Shots in box
24%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction7.459.8417.29safe4.93–9.977.54–12.1412.47–22.11safer4.07–10.836.74–12.9410.81–23.77actual9.006.0015.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.226.34safe1.54–4.701.81–4.643.34–9.34safer1.00–5.241.32–5.122.32–10.36actual2.002.004.00
Corners
28%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.975.189.15safe1.76–6.173.21–7.164.97–13.33safer1.17–6.772.67–7.703.84–14.47actual1.003.004.00
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.8152.62safe40.49–53.1246.30–58.94safer38.89–54.7244.70–60.53actual42.0058.00
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction420485905safe355–485421–550775–1035safer337–503403–567740–1070actual4416151056
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction82.7685.28safe78.54–86.9780.77–89.79safer77.24–88.2779.44–91.12
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8514.7328.58safe10.99–16.7111.79–17.6822.78–34.39safer10.11–17.5910.87–18.6020.98–36.19actual12.0019.0031.00
Offsides
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.183.99safe0.60–3.021.02–3.341.62–6.36safer0.26–3.370.68–3.670.94–7.04actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.685.09safe1.35–3.461.56–3.802.91–7.27safer1.08–3.731.27–4.092.35–7.83actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.016.15safe1.73–4.561.45–4.563.18–9.12safer1.34–4.951.02–4.992.36–9.94actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.30–2.22 0.04–2.48 | 1.00 | 1.56 0.70–2.42 0.45–2.67 | 1.00 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.49–5.15 | 2.00 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.73 1.88–5.59 1.38–6.09 | 5.00 | 5.20 3.49–6.90 3.02–7.37 | 3.00 | 8.93 5.37–12.49 4.40–13.46 | 8.00 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.52 7.81–15.22 6.78–16.25 | 11.00 | 13.49 10.11–16.87 9.18–17.80 | 8.00 | 25.01 17.93–32.09 15.96–34.05 | 19.00 | 31% 62% |
| Shots in box | 7.45 4.93–9.97 4.07–10.83 | 9.00 | 9.84 7.54–12.14 6.74–12.94 | 6.00 | 17.29 12.47–22.11 10.81–23.77 | 15.00 | 24% 68% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.54–4.70 1.00–5.24 | 2.00 | 3.22 1.81–4.64 1.32–5.12 | 2.00 | 6.34 3.34–9.34 2.32–10.36 | 4.00 | 40% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 3.97 1.76–6.17 1.17–6.77 | 1.00 | 5.18 3.21–7.16 2.67–7.70 | 3.00 | 9.15 4.97–13.33 3.84–14.47 | 4.00 | 28% 59% |
| Possession % | 46.81 40.49–53.12 38.89–54.72 | 42.00 | 52.62 46.30–58.94 44.70–60.53 | 58.00 | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 420 355–485 337–503 | 441 | 485 421–550 403–567 | 615 | 905 775–1035 740–1070 | 1056 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.76 78.54–86.97 77.24–88.27 | — | 85.28 80.77–89.79 79.44–91.12 | — | — | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 13.85 10.99–16.71 10.11–17.59 | 12.00 | 14.73 11.79–17.68 10.87–18.60 | 19.00 | 28.58 22.78–34.39 20.98–36.19 | 31.00 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.26–3.37 | 1.00 | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.68–3.67 | 0.00 | 3.99 1.62–6.36 0.94–7.04 | 1.00 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.41 1.35–3.46 1.08–3.73 | 4.00 | 2.68 1.56–3.80 1.27–4.09 | 2.00 | 5.09 2.91–7.27 2.35–7.83 | 6.00 | 36% 18% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.73–4.56 1.34–4.95 | 2.00 | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.99 | 4.00 | 6.15 3.18–9.12 2.36–9.94 | 6.00 | 44% 16% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.