UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.403.40safe1.04–2.980.54–2.251.58–5.23safer0.79–3.230.31–2.481.10–5.71
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.334.7011.03safe4.47–8.192.96–6.447.42–14.63safer3.98–8.682.49–6.916.47–15.59
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction17.8812.5630.43safe13.95–21.809.00–16.1222.95–37.92safer12.86–22.898.04–17.0820.90–39.97
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction12.388.3320.70safe9.44–15.325.65–11.0115.08–26.33safer8.61–16.154.91–11.7513.51–27.89
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.477.66safe2.30–6.071.82–5.124.12–11.19safer1.76–6.611.33–5.623.09–12.23
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.224.6210.84safe4.01–8.432.62–6.626.63–15.05safer3.43–9.012.08–7.155.52–16.16
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.8349.18safe45.04–58.6242.39–55.96safer43.37–60.2940.72–57.63
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction499472971safe432–567405–538837–1105safer414–585388–556802–1140
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction72.1174.37safe68.08–76.1470.04–78.69safer66.79–77.4368.73–80.00
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4810.7021.18safe7.64–13.317.75–13.6415.39–26.96safer6.88–14.077.01–14.3913.89–28.46
Offsides
71%
15%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction3.061.404.46safe1.90–4.220.31–2.492.21–6.71safer1.60–4.520.02–2.781.62–7.30
Yellow cards
29%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.773.10safe0.28–2.380.64–2.900.92–5.28safer0.02–2.650.35–3.190.37–5.84
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.044.157.19safe1.61–4.482.59–5.714.20–10.19safer1.22–4.872.17–6.133.39–11.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.01 1.04–2.98 0.79–3.23 | 1.40 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 3.40 1.58–5.23 1.10–5.71 | 52% 22% 27% |
| Shots on target | 6.33 4.47–8.19 3.98–8.68 | 4.70 2.96–6.44 2.49–6.91 | 11.03 7.42–14.63 6.47–15.59 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 17.88 13.95–21.80 12.86–22.89 | 12.56 9.00–16.12 8.04–17.08 | 30.43 22.95–37.92 20.90–39.97 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 12.38 9.44–15.32 8.61–16.15 | 8.33 5.65–11.01 4.91–11.75 | 20.70 15.08–26.33 13.51–27.89 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.30–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.47 1.82–5.12 1.33–5.62 | 7.66 4.12–11.19 3.09–12.23 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 6.22 4.01–8.43 3.43–9.01 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.08–7.15 | 10.84 6.63–15.05 5.52–16.16 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 51.83 45.04–58.62 43.37–60.29 | 49.18 42.39–55.96 40.72–57.63 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 499 432–567 414–585 | 472 405–538 388–556 | 971 837–1105 802–1140 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.11 68.08–76.14 66.79–77.43 | 74.37 70.04–78.69 68.73–80.00 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 10.48 7.64–13.31 6.88–14.07 | 10.70 7.75–13.64 7.01–14.39 | 21.18 15.39–26.96 13.89–28.46 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 3.06 1.90–4.22 1.60–4.52 | 1.40 0.31–2.49 0.02–2.78 | 4.46 2.21–6.71 1.62–7.30 | 71% 15% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 0.28–2.38 0.02–2.65 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.10 0.92–5.28 0.37–5.84 | 29% 23% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 4.15 2.59–5.71 2.17–6.13 | 7.19 4.20–10.19 3.39–11.00 | 27% 14% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+