UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.092.94safe0.89–2.820.23–1.941.12–4.76safer0.63–3.070.00–2.170.64–5.24
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.013.639.64safe4.15–7.871.88–5.376.03–13.24safer3.66–8.361.42–5.835.08–14.20
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8210.0226.84safe12.89–20.746.46–13.5819.35–34.33safer11.80–21.835.50–14.5417.30–36.38
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction11.406.4117.81safe8.46–14.353.73–9.0912.19–23.43safer7.63–15.182.99–9.8310.62–25.00
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.577.00safe2.55–6.310.92–4.233.47–10.54safer2.01–6.860.43–4.722.43–11.58
Corners
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.163.289.44safe3.95–8.371.28–5.285.23–13.66safer3.37–8.950.75–5.824.12–14.76
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.8943.84safe50.10–63.6837.05–50.62safer48.43–65.3535.38–52.30
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction482373855safe415–549307–440722–989safer397–567289–457686–1025
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction82.1073.68safe78.07–86.1369.36–78.01safer76.77–87.4268.05–79.32
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4212.4324.86safe9.59–15.269.49–15.3819.07–30.64safer8.83–16.028.74–16.1217.57–32.14
Offsides
48%
18%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.772.375.15safe1.61–3.931.28–3.472.89–7.40safer1.31–4.230.99–3.752.30–7.99
Yellow cards
30%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.324.09safe0.72–2.821.19–3.451.91–6.27safer0.45–3.080.90–3.741.35–6.83
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.130.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.310.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
23%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.756.20safe1.01–3.882.19–5.313.20–9.19safer0.62–4.271.77–5.732.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.85 0.89–2.82 0.63–3.07 | 1.09 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.64–5.24 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 6.01 4.15–7.87 3.66–8.36 | 3.63 1.88–5.37 1.42–5.83 | 9.64 6.03–13.24 5.08–14.20 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 16.82 12.89–20.74 11.80–21.83 | 10.02 6.46–13.58 5.50–14.54 | 26.84 19.35–34.33 17.30–36.38 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 11.40 8.46–14.35 7.63–15.18 | 6.41 3.73–9.09 2.99–9.83 | 17.81 12.19–23.43 10.62–25.00 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.55–6.31 2.01–6.86 | 2.57 0.92–4.23 0.43–4.72 | 7.00 3.47–10.54 2.43–11.58 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.16 3.95–8.37 3.37–8.95 | 3.28 1.28–5.28 0.75–5.82 | 9.44 5.23–13.66 4.12–14.76 | 78% 13% |
| Possession % | 56.89 50.10–63.68 48.43–65.35 | 43.84 37.05–50.62 35.38–52.30 | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 482 415–549 397–567 | 373 307–440 289–457 | 855 722–989 686–1025 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.10 78.07–86.13 76.77–87.42 | 73.68 69.36–78.01 68.05–79.32 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.42 9.59–15.26 8.83–16.02 | 12.43 9.49–15.38 8.74–16.12 | 24.86 19.07–30.64 17.57–32.14 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.77 1.61–3.93 1.31–4.23 | 2.37 1.28–3.47 0.99–3.75 | 5.15 2.89–7.40 2.30–7.99 | 48% 18% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.45–3.08 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 4.09 1.91–6.27 1.35–6.83 | 30% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.75 2.19–5.31 1.77–5.73 | 6.20 3.20–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 23% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+