UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.483.20safe0.75–2.690.63–2.341.38–5.02safer0.50–2.940.40–2.570.90–5.50
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.364.229.58safe3.50–7.222.48–5.965.98–13.19safer3.01–7.712.01–6.435.02–14.14
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5910.9026.49safe11.67–19.527.34–14.4619.01–33.98safer10.58–20.616.38–15.4216.96–36.03
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.617.1417.75safe7.67–13.564.46–9.8212.13–23.37safer6.84–14.383.72–10.5610.56–24.94
Blocked shots
64%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.242.767.00safe2.36–6.121.11–4.423.47–10.54safer1.81–6.670.62–4.912.43–11.57
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.093.509.59safe3.88–8.301.50–5.505.38–13.81safer3.30–8.880.97–6.044.27–14.91
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.7845.05safe48.98–62.5738.27–51.84safer47.32–64.2436.60–53.51
Passes
79%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction488390878safe421–556323–456744–1012safer403–574306–474709–1047
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction80.1872.30safe76.15–84.2167.98–76.63safer74.86–85.5166.67–77.94
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9512.1723.12safe8.11–13.799.22–15.1117.34–28.90safer7.36–14.548.48–15.8615.83–30.41
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.664.28safe0.46–2.781.57–3.762.03–6.53safer0.16–3.081.28–4.041.44–7.12
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.043.66safe0.57–2.670.91–3.171.48–5.84safer0.30–2.930.62–3.460.93–6.40
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
30%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.536.23safe1.27–4.141.97–5.083.24–9.22safer0.88–4.531.55–5.512.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.75–2.69 0.50–2.94 | 1.48 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 3.20 1.38–5.02 0.90–5.50 | 43% 23% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.22 3.01–7.71 | 4.22 2.48–5.96 2.01–6.43 | 9.58 5.98–13.19 5.02–14.14 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.59 11.67–19.52 10.58–20.61 | 10.90 7.34–14.46 6.38–15.42 | 26.49 19.01–33.98 16.96–36.03 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.61 7.67–13.56 6.84–14.38 | 7.14 4.46–9.82 3.72–10.56 | 17.75 12.13–23.37 10.56–24.94 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.24 2.36–6.12 1.81–6.67 | 2.76 1.11–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 7.00 3.47–10.54 2.43–11.57 | 64% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 6.09 3.88–8.30 3.30–8.88 | 3.50 1.50–5.50 0.97–6.04 | 9.59 5.38–13.81 4.27–14.91 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 55.78 48.98–62.57 47.32–64.24 | 45.05 38.27–51.84 36.60–53.51 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 488 421–556 403–574 | 390 323–456 306–474 | 878 744–1012 709–1047 | 79% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.18 76.15–84.21 74.86–85.51 | 72.30 67.98–76.63 66.67–77.94 | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 10.95 8.11–13.79 7.36–14.54 | 12.17 9.22–15.11 8.48–15.86 | 23.12 17.34–28.90 15.83–30.41 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 2.66 1.57–3.76 1.28–4.04 | 4.28 2.03–6.53 1.44–7.12 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.66 1.48–5.84 0.93–6.40 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.14 0.88–4.53 | 3.53 1.97–5.08 1.55–5.51 | 6.23 3.24–9.22 2.43–10.04 | 30% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+