UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.463.28safe0.86–2.800.60–2.311.46–5.10safer0.61–3.050.37–2.540.98–5.58
Shots on target
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.674.5810.25safe3.81–7.532.84–6.336.65–13.86safer3.32–8.022.38–6.795.69–14.81
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3911.9128.30safe12.46–20.318.35–15.4820.81–35.79safer11.37–21.407.39–16.4318.76–37.84
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction10.498.1218.61safe7.54–13.435.44–10.8012.99–24.23safer6.72–14.264.70–11.5411.42–25.80
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.852.977.82safe2.97–6.741.32–4.624.29–11.36safer2.43–7.280.83–5.123.25–12.40
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.1810.03safe3.64–8.062.18–6.185.82–14.24safer3.06–8.641.65–6.714.71–15.35
Possession %
54%
42%
homeawayprediction51.2748.67safe44.48–58.0641.88–55.45safer42.81–59.7340.21–57.12
Passes
56%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction443424867safe376–510357–490733–1000safer358–528340–507697–1036
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction79.0575.16safe75.02–83.0870.83–79.48safer73.73–84.3769.52–80.79
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5312.0823.61safe8.69–14.379.14–15.0317.83–29.40safer7.94–15.128.39–15.7816.33–30.90
Offsides
20%
18%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.634.11safe0.32–2.641.53–3.721.86–6.37safer0.02–2.951.25–4.011.27–6.95
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.304.06safe0.71–2.811.17–3.431.88–6.24safer0.44–3.070.88–3.721.33–6.80
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.666.69safe1.60–4.472.10–5.213.70–9.69safer1.21–4.861.67–5.642.89–10.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 1.46 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.54 | 3.28 1.46–5.10 0.98–5.58 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.67 3.81–7.53 3.32–8.02 | 4.58 2.84–6.33 2.38–6.79 | 10.25 6.65–13.86 5.69–14.81 | 57% 31% |
| Total shots | 16.39 12.46–20.31 11.37–21.40 | 11.91 8.35–15.48 7.39–16.43 | 28.30 20.81–35.79 18.76–37.84 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.49 7.54–13.43 6.72–14.26 | 8.12 5.44–10.80 4.70–11.54 | 18.61 12.99–24.23 11.42–25.80 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 2.97–6.74 2.43–7.28 | 2.97 1.32–4.62 0.83–5.12 | 7.82 4.29–11.36 3.25–12.40 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.06 3.06–8.64 | 4.18 2.18–6.18 1.65–6.71 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 51.27 44.48–58.06 42.81–59.73 | 48.67 41.88–55.45 40.21–57.12 | — | 54% 42% |
| Passes | 443 376–510 358–528 | 424 357–490 340–507 | 867 733–1000 697–1036 | 56% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.05 75.02–83.08 73.73–84.37 | 75.16 70.83–79.48 69.52–80.79 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 11.53 8.69–14.37 7.94–15.12 | 12.08 9.14–15.03 8.39–15.78 | 23.61 17.83–29.40 16.33–30.90 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.95 | 2.63 1.53–3.72 1.25–4.01 | 4.11 1.86–6.37 1.27–6.95 | 20% 18% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.06 1.88–6.24 1.33–6.80 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.60–4.47 1.21–4.86 | 3.66 2.10–5.21 1.67–5.64 | 6.69 3.70–9.69 2.89–10.50 | 33% 15% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.