UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
69%
17%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.511.063.57safe1.54–3.470.21–1.921.74–5.39safer1.29–3.730.00–2.141.27–5.87
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.813.5210.32safe4.95–8.671.77–5.266.72–13.93safer4.46–9.161.31–5.725.76–14.89
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.639.6127.24safe13.71–21.566.04–13.1719.75–34.73safer12.62–22.655.09–14.1317.70–36.78
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.826.9819.80safe9.88–15.764.30–9.6714.18–25.43safer9.05–16.593.57–10.4012.61–26.99
Blocked shots
78%
homeawaytotalprediction5.062.467.52safe3.18–6.950.80–4.113.98–11.06safer2.64–7.490.31–4.602.95–12.09
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.293.459.73safe4.07–8.501.45–5.455.52–13.95safer3.50–9.070.91–5.984.41–15.05
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction62.3538.55safe55.56–69.1431.76–45.33safer53.89–70.8130.09–47.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction603370972safe536–670303–436839–1106safer517–688286–454803–1142
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction88.9779.73safe84.94–93.0075.41–84.06safer83.65–94.2974.10–85.37
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3010.8321.13safe7.46–13.137.89–13.7815.35–26.91safer6.70–13.897.14–14.5313.84–28.42
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.763.48safe0.56–2.880.66–2.851.23–5.73safer0.26–3.190.37–3.140.64–6.32
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.123.73safe0.56–2.660.99–3.251.55–5.90safer0.29–2.920.70–3.540.99–6.46
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.110.15safe0.00–0.200.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.350.00–0.430.00–0.78
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.654.116.76safe1.21–4.082.55–5.673.76–9.75safer0.82–4.472.13–6.092.95–10.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.51 1.54–3.47 1.29–3.73 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.14 | 3.57 1.74–5.39 1.27–5.87 | 69% 17% 14% |
| Shots on target | 6.81 4.95–8.67 4.46–9.16 | 3.52 1.77–5.26 1.31–5.72 | 10.32 6.72–13.93 5.76–14.89 | 81% |
| Total shots | 17.63 13.71–21.56 12.62–22.65 | 9.61 6.04–13.17 5.09–14.13 | 27.24 19.75–34.73 17.70–36.78 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 12.82 9.88–15.76 9.05–16.59 | 6.98 4.30–9.67 3.57–10.40 | 19.80 14.18–25.43 12.61–26.99 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 3.18–6.95 2.64–7.49 | 2.46 0.80–4.11 0.31–4.60 | 7.52 3.98–11.06 2.95–12.09 | 78% |
| Corners | 6.29 4.07–8.50 3.50–9.07 | 3.45 1.45–5.45 0.91–5.98 | 9.73 5.52–13.95 4.41–15.05 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 62.35 55.56–69.14 53.89–70.81 | 38.55 31.76–45.33 30.09–47.00 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 603 536–670 517–688 | 370 303–436 286–454 | 972 839–1106 803–1142 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.97 84.94–93.00 83.65–94.29 | 79.73 75.41–84.06 74.10–85.37 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 10.30 7.46–13.13 6.70–13.89 | 10.83 7.89–13.78 7.14–14.53 | 21.13 15.35–26.91 13.84–28.42 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.26–3.19 | 1.76 0.66–2.85 0.37–3.14 | 3.48 1.23–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 38% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.29–2.92 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.46 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.21–4.08 0.82–4.47 | 4.11 2.55–5.67 2.13–6.09 | 6.76 3.76–9.75 2.95–10.56 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.