UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
19%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.321.223.53safe1.35–3.280.36–2.071.71–5.36safer1.10–3.540.13–2.301.23–5.84
Shots on target
68%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.584.5611.15safe4.72–8.452.82–6.307.54–14.75safer4.23–8.942.35–6.776.59–15.71
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction18.4311.6130.04safe14.51–22.368.05–15.1722.55–37.53safer13.42–23.457.09–16.1320.50–39.58
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction12.767.6920.45safe9.82–15.715.01–10.3714.83–26.07safer8.99–16.534.27–11.1113.26–27.64
Blocked shots
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.138.34safe3.34–7.101.47–4.784.81–11.88safer2.79–7.640.98–5.273.77–12.92
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.184.0510.23safe3.97–8.392.05–6.056.02–14.44safer3.39–8.971.52–6.584.91–15.55
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.6342.36safe50.84–64.4335.57–49.14safer49.17–66.0933.90–50.81
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction562417979safe495–629350–483845–1113safer477–647333–501809–1148
Pass accuracy %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction84.5077.42safe80.47–88.5373.10–81.75safer79.18–89.8271.79–83.06
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8210.7320.55safe6.98–12.667.78–13.6714.77–26.33safer6.23–13.427.03–14.4213.26–27.83
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.023.67safe0.50–2.820.93–3.111.42–5.93safer0.19–3.120.64–3.400.83–6.52
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.933.42safe0.44–2.540.80–3.051.24–5.59safer0.18–2.810.51–3.350.68–6.15
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.074.067.14safe1.64–4.512.51–5.624.14–10.13safer1.25–4.902.08–6.053.33–10.94
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.32 1.35–3.28 1.10–3.54 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 3.53 1.71–5.36 1.23–5.84 | 62% 19% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.58 4.72–8.45 4.23–8.94 | 4.56 2.82–6.30 2.35–6.77 | 11.15 7.54–14.75 6.59–15.71 | 68% 22% |
| Total shots | 18.43 14.51–22.36 13.42–23.45 | 11.61 8.05–15.17 7.09–16.13 | 30.04 22.55–37.53 20.50–39.58 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 12.76 9.82–15.71 8.99–16.53 | 7.69 5.01–10.37 4.27–11.11 | 20.45 14.83–26.07 13.26–27.64 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 5.22 3.34–7.10 2.79–7.64 | 3.13 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 8.34 4.81–11.88 3.77–12.92 | 71% 18% |
| Corners | 6.18 3.97–8.39 3.39–8.97 | 4.05 2.05–6.05 1.52–6.58 | 10.23 6.02–14.44 4.91–15.55 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 57.63 50.84–64.43 49.17–66.09 | 42.36 35.57–49.14 33.90–50.81 | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 562 495–629 477–647 | 417 350–483 333–501 | 979 845–1113 809–1148 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.50 80.47–88.53 79.18–89.82 | 77.42 73.10–81.75 71.79–83.06 | — | 80% 16% |
| Fouls | 9.82 6.98–12.66 6.23–13.42 | 10.73 7.78–13.67 7.03–14.42 | 20.55 14.77–26.33 13.26–27.83 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.19–3.12 | 2.02 0.93–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 3.67 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.18–2.81 | 1.93 0.80–3.05 0.51–3.35 | 3.42 1.24–5.59 0.68–6.15 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 4.06 2.51–5.62 2.08–6.05 | 7.14 4.14–10.13 3.33–10.94 | 29% 14% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.