Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.442.89safe0.49–2.420.58–2.291.07–4.72safer0.24–2.680.35–2.520.59–5.20
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.724.739.45safe2.85–6.582.99–6.475.84–13.05safer2.37–7.072.52–6.944.89–14.01
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3412.8326.18safe9.42–17.279.27–16.4018.69–33.66safer8.32–18.368.31–17.3616.64–35.71
Shots in box
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.568.6217.19safe5.62–11.515.94–11.3011.56–22.81safer4.79–12.335.20–12.0410.00–24.38
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.677.47safe1.92–5.682.02–5.323.94–11.01safer1.37–6.221.53–5.822.90–12.04
Corners
49%
13%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.944.539.46safe2.72–7.152.53–6.535.25–13.68safer2.15–7.721.99–7.064.14–14.78
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.7354.02safe39.94–53.5247.23–60.80safer38.27–55.1945.56–62.47
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction414487901safe347–481420–553767–1034safer329–500403–571731–1070
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction71.2875.01safe67.25–75.3170.68–79.33safer65.96–76.6069.38–80.64
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7711.6422.40safe7.93–13.608.69–14.5816.62–28.18safer7.17–14.367.94–15.3315.12–29.69
Offsides
42%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.214.52safe1.15–3.471.11–3.302.27–6.77safer0.85–3.770.82–3.591.68–7.36
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.203.98safe0.73–2.831.07–3.331.80–6.16safer0.46–3.100.78–3.621.25–6.72
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.186.22safe1.61–4.481.62–4.733.22–9.21safer1.22–4.871.19–5.162.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.42 0.24–2.68 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 2.89 1.07–4.72 0.59–5.20 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.85–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 4.73 2.99–6.47 2.52–6.94 | 9.45 5.84–13.05 4.89–14.01 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.34 9.42–17.27 8.32–18.36 | 12.83 9.27–16.40 8.31–17.36 | 26.18 18.69–33.66 16.64–35.71 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 5.62–11.51 4.79–12.33 | 8.62 5.94–11.30 5.20–12.04 | 17.19 11.56–22.81 10.00–24.38 | 45% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 1.92–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.67 2.02–5.32 1.53–5.82 | 7.47 3.94–11.01 2.90–12.04 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.94 2.72–7.15 2.15–7.72 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 1.99–7.06 | 9.46 5.25–13.68 4.14–14.78 | 49% 13% 38% |
| Possession % | 46.73 39.94–53.52 38.27–55.19 | 54.02 47.23–60.80 45.56–62.47 | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 414 347–481 329–500 | 487 420–553 403–571 | 901 767–1034 731–1070 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.28 67.25–75.31 65.96–76.60 | 75.01 70.68–79.33 69.38–80.64 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 10.77 7.93–13.60 7.17–14.36 | 11.64 8.69–14.58 7.94–15.33 | 22.40 16.62–28.18 15.12–29.69 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.31 1.15–3.47 0.85–3.77 | 2.21 1.11–3.30 0.82–3.59 | 4.52 2.27–6.77 1.68–7.36 | 42% 19% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.46–3.10 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 3.18 1.62–4.73 1.19–5.16 | 6.22 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.