UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.593.08safe0.53–2.460.73–2.441.26–4.90safer0.28–2.720.50–2.670.78–5.38
Shots on target
41%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.484.639.11safe2.62–6.352.89–6.375.51–12.72safer2.13–6.832.42–6.844.55–13.67
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5812.2325.80safe9.65–17.508.67–15.7918.32–33.29safer8.56–18.597.71–16.7516.27–35.34
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.598.5817.16safe5.64–11.535.89–11.2611.54–22.78safer4.81–12.365.16–11.999.97–24.35
Blocked shots
46%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.943.727.66safe2.06–5.822.07–5.384.13–11.20safer1.51–6.371.58–5.873.09–12.24
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.529.79safe3.05–7.482.52–6.525.58–14.00safer2.48–8.061.99–7.064.47–15.11
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.5954.67safe39.80–53.3847.88–61.45safer38.13–55.0546.21–63.13
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction408475883safe340–475409–541749–1016safer322–493391–559713–1052
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction72.6476.66safe68.61–76.6772.34–80.99safer67.32–77.9671.03–82.30
Fouls
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2411.5024.74safe10.40–16.078.56–14.4518.95–30.52safer9.64–16.837.81–15.1917.45–32.02
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.093.69safe0.44–2.761.00–3.181.44–5.95safer0.14–3.060.71–3.470.85–6.54
Yellow cards
29%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.414.23safe0.77–2.861.28–3.542.05–6.40safer0.50–3.130.99–3.831.49–6.96
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.016.02safe1.57–4.441.46–4.573.03–9.01safer1.18–4.831.03–5.002.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.46 0.28–2.72 | 1.59 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.67 | 3.08 1.26–4.90 0.78–5.38 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.48 2.62–6.35 2.13–6.83 | 4.63 2.89–6.37 2.42–6.84 | 9.11 5.51–12.72 4.55–13.67 | 41% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.58 9.65–17.50 8.56–18.59 | 12.23 8.67–15.79 7.71–16.75 | 25.80 18.32–33.29 16.27–35.34 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.59 5.64–11.53 4.81–12.36 | 8.58 5.89–11.26 5.16–11.99 | 17.16 11.54–22.78 9.97–24.35 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 2.06–5.82 1.51–6.37 | 3.72 2.07–5.38 1.58–5.87 | 7.66 4.13–11.20 3.09–12.24 | 46% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.06 | 4.52 2.52–6.52 1.99–7.06 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 46.59 39.80–53.38 38.13–55.05 | 54.67 47.88–61.45 46.21–63.13 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 408 340–475 322–493 | 475 409–541 391–559 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.64 68.61–76.67 67.32–77.96 | 76.66 72.34–80.99 71.03–82.30 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 13.24 10.40–16.07 9.64–16.83 | 11.50 8.56–14.45 7.81–15.19 | 24.74 18.95–30.52 17.45–32.02 | 60% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 2.09 1.00–3.18 0.71–3.47 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.77–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.23 2.05–6.40 1.49–6.96 | 29% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | 6.02 3.03–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.