UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.293.10safe0.84–2.780.43–2.141.27–4.92safer0.59–3.030.21–2.370.79–5.40
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.904.3210.23safe4.04–7.762.58–6.076.62–13.83safer3.55–8.252.12–6.535.66–14.79
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9711.0828.06safe13.05–20.907.52–14.6520.57–35.54safer11.96–21.996.56–15.6118.52–37.59
Shots in box
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction11.887.5819.46safe8.93–14.824.90–10.2613.84–25.08safer8.11–15.654.16–11.0012.27–26.65
Blocked shots
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.903.338.23safe3.02–6.781.68–4.994.70–11.77safer2.47–7.331.19–5.483.66–12.80
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.913.939.84safe3.70–8.131.93–5.935.63–14.05safer3.13–8.701.39–6.464.52–15.16
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.7951.27safe43.00–56.5844.49–58.06safer41.33–58.2542.82–59.73
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction483507991safe416–551441–574857–1124safer398–569423–591821–1160
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction71.7974.30safe67.76–75.8269.97–78.62safer66.46–77.1168.66–79.93
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6410.4621.10safe7.80–13.487.51–13.4015.31–26.88safer7.05–14.236.76–14.1513.81–28.38
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.673.75safe0.91–3.230.58–2.771.49–6.00safer0.61–3.530.29–3.050.90–6.59
Yellow cards
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.533.43safe0.86–2.950.40–2.661.26–5.61safer0.59–3.220.11–2.950.70–6.17
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
26%
14%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.966.75safe1.35–4.222.41–5.523.76–9.74safer0.96–4.611.98–5.942.94–10.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.78 0.59–3.03 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.21–2.37 | 3.10 1.27–4.92 0.79–5.40 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.90 4.04–7.76 3.55–8.25 | 4.32 2.58–6.07 2.12–6.53 | 10.23 6.62–13.83 5.66–14.79 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.97 13.05–20.90 11.96–21.99 | 11.08 7.52–14.65 6.56–15.61 | 28.06 20.57–35.54 18.52–37.59 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 11.88 8.93–14.82 8.11–15.65 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 19.46 13.84–25.08 12.27–26.65 | 81% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.90 3.02–6.78 2.47–7.33 | 3.33 1.68–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 8.23 4.70–11.77 3.66–12.80 | 64% 23% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.13 3.13–8.70 | 3.93 1.93–5.93 1.39–6.46 | 9.84 5.63–14.05 4.52–15.16 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 49.79 43.00–56.58 41.33–58.25 | 51.27 44.49–58.06 42.82–59.73 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 483 416–551 398–569 | 507 441–574 423–591 | 991 857–1124 821–1160 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.79 67.76–75.82 66.46–77.11 | 74.30 69.97–78.62 68.66–79.93 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 10.64 7.80–13.48 7.05–14.23 | 10.46 7.51–13.40 6.76–14.15 | 21.10 15.31–26.88 13.81–28.38 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.53 | 1.67 0.58–2.77 0.29–3.05 | 3.75 1.49–6.00 0.90–6.59 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.86–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 3.43 1.26–5.61 0.70–6.17 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.96 2.41–5.52 1.98–5.94 | 6.75 3.76–9.74 2.94–10.55 | 26% 14% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.