UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Georgi Kabakov · Bulgaria
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.322.73safe0.44–2.370.46–2.180.91–4.55safer0.18–2.630.22–2.430.40–5.06actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.565.099.65safe2.71–6.423.38–6.806.09–13.22safer2.21–6.922.91–7.265.12–14.18actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1214.5327.65safe9.42–16.8211.15–17.9020.56–34.73safer8.39–17.8510.22–18.8318.60–36.69actual6.0020.0026.00
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.718.3418.05safe7.19–12.226.04–10.6413.23–22.87safer6.33–13.095.24–11.4411.57–24.53actual4.0010.0014.00
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.813.827.63safe2.22–5.392.40–5.234.63–10.62safer1.69–5.931.92–5.723.61–11.65actual2.006.008.00
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.739.88safe2.95–7.362.75–6.705.70–14.06safer2.35–7.952.21–7.244.56–15.20actual5.005.0010.00
Possession %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction47.2854.94safe40.96–53.6048.63–61.26safer39.37–55.2047.03–62.86actual45.0055.00
Passes
19%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction438538976safe373–503474–603846–1106safer355–521456–620811–1141actual4475641011
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction76.3986.43safe72.17–80.6081.93–90.94safer70.87–81.9080.59–92.27actual88.0088.00
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5211.0120.53safe6.67–12.388.06–13.9514.73–26.33safer5.78–13.267.14–14.8712.92–28.13actual11.0013.0024.00
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.413.21safe0.60–3.020.24–2.570.84–5.59safer0.25–3.360.00–2.900.16–6.26actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
41%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.004.05safe0.99–3.110.88–3.121.87–6.23safer0.72–3.380.59–3.411.31–6.79actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.343.146.49safe1.93–4.761.59–4.703.52–9.45safer1.54–5.151.16–5.132.70–10.27actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.37 0.18–2.63 | 2.00 | 1.32 0.46–2.18 0.22–2.43 | 3.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 5.00 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.71–6.42 2.21–6.92 | 2.00 | 5.09 3.38–6.80 2.91–7.26 | 5.00 | 9.65 6.09–13.22 5.12–14.18 | 7.00 | 37% 50% |
| Total shots | 13.12 9.42–16.82 8.39–17.85 | 6.00 | 14.53 11.15–17.90 10.22–18.83 | 20.00 | 27.65 20.56–34.73 18.60–36.69 | 26.00 | 36% 57% |
| Shots in box | 9.71 7.19–12.22 6.33–13.09 | 4.00 | 8.34 6.04–10.64 5.24–11.44 | 10.00 | 18.05 13.23–22.87 11.57–24.53 | 14.00 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 2.22–5.39 1.69–5.93 | 2.00 | 3.82 2.40–5.23 1.92–5.72 | 6.00 | 7.63 4.63–10.62 3.61–11.65 | 8.00 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.95–7.36 2.35–7.95 | 5.00 | 4.73 2.75–6.70 2.21–7.24 | 5.00 | 9.88 5.70–14.06 4.56–15.20 | 10.00 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 47.28 40.96–53.60 39.37–55.20 | 45.00 | 54.94 48.63–61.26 47.03–62.86 | 55.00 | — | — | 29% 66% |
| Passes | 438 373–503 355–521 | 447 | 538 474–603 456–620 | 564 | 976 846–1106 811–1141 | 1011 | 19% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.39 72.17–80.60 70.87–81.90 | 88.00 | 86.43 81.93–90.94 80.59–92.27 | 88.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 9.52 6.67–12.38 5.78–13.26 | 11.00 | 11.01 8.06–13.95 7.14–14.87 | 13.00 | 20.53 14.73–26.33 12.92–28.13 | 24.00 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.25–3.36 | 4.00 | 1.41 0.24–2.57 0.00–2.90 | 0.00 | 3.21 0.84–5.59 0.16–6.26 | 4.00 | 47% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 0.99–3.11 0.72–3.38 | 1.00 | 2.00 0.88–3.12 0.59–3.41 | 3.00 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.31–6.79 | 4.00 | 41% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.93–4.76 1.54–5.15 | 2.00 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | 0.00 | 6.49 3.52–9.45 2.70–10.27 | 2.00 | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.