UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
25%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.542.72safe0.21–2.150.68–2.390.89–4.54safer0.00–2.400.45–2.620.41–5.02
Shots on target
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.155.319.46safe2.29–6.013.56–7.055.85–13.06safer1.80–6.503.10–7.524.90–14.02
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0014.4226.42safe8.07–15.9210.86–17.9918.93–33.91safer6.98–17.019.90–18.9516.88–35.96
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.119.6717.78safe5.17–11.056.99–12.3512.16–23.40safer4.34–11.886.25–13.0910.59–24.97
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.364.257.61safe1.48–5.242.60–5.904.08–11.15safer0.94–5.792.10–6.393.04–12.18
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.434.859.29safe2.22–6.652.85–6.855.07–13.50safer1.65–7.222.32–7.393.97–14.61
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.2452.14safe41.45–55.0345.36–58.92safer39.78–56.7043.68–60.60
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction445483928safe377–512417–550794–1062safer359–530399–567759–1097
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction72.5480.84safe68.51–76.5776.51–85.16safer67.22–77.8775.21–86.47
Fouls
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1814.1125.29safe8.34–14.0211.17–17.0619.51–31.08safer7.59–14.7810.42–17.8018.01–32.58
Offsides
59%
17%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.911.894.80safe1.75–4.080.79–2.982.55–7.06safer1.45–4.380.51–3.271.96–7.64
Yellow cards
33%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.404.42safe0.97–3.071.27–3.532.24–6.59safer0.70–3.330.98–3.821.68–7.15
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
53%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.502.816.32safe2.07–4.941.26–4.373.33–9.31safer1.68–5.330.83–4.802.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.54 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 2.72 0.89–4.54 0.41–5.02 | 29% 25% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.01 1.80–6.50 | 5.31 3.56–7.05 3.10–7.52 | 9.46 5.85–13.06 4.90–14.02 | 29% 58% |
| Total shots | 12.00 8.07–15.92 6.98–17.01 | 14.42 10.86–17.99 9.90–18.95 | 26.42 18.93–33.91 16.88–35.96 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 8.11 5.17–11.05 4.34–11.88 | 9.67 6.99–12.35 6.25–13.09 | 17.78 12.16–23.40 10.59–24.97 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.36 1.48–5.24 0.94–5.79 | 4.25 2.60–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 7.61 4.08–11.15 3.04–12.18 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 4.43 2.22–6.65 1.65–7.22 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.32–7.39 | 9.29 5.07–13.50 3.97–14.61 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 48.24 41.45–55.03 39.78–56.70 | 52.14 45.36–58.92 43.68–60.60 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 445 377–512 359–530 | 483 417–550 399–567 | 928 794–1062 759–1097 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.54 68.51–76.57 67.22–77.87 | 80.84 76.51–85.16 75.21–86.47 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 11.18 8.34–14.02 7.59–14.78 | 14.11 11.17–17.06 10.42–17.80 | 25.29 19.51–31.08 18.01–32.58 | 25% 69% |
| Offsides | 2.91 1.75–4.08 1.45–4.38 | 1.89 0.79–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 4.80 2.55–7.06 1.96–7.64 | 59% 17% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.70–3.33 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.42 2.24–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 33% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.50 2.07–4.94 1.68–5.33 | 2.81 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.51–10.12 | 53% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+