UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Davide Massa · Italy
Goals
43%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.302.85safe0.58–2.510.44–2.161.02–4.67safer0.32–2.770.19–2.410.52–5.18actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.044.009.04safe3.18–6.892.29–5.715.47–12.60safer2.68–7.391.82–6.184.50–13.57actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1811.5926.77safe11.48–18.888.21–14.9719.69–33.85safer10.45–19.917.28–15.9017.73–35.81actual14.009.0023.00
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.376.5916.96safe7.86–12.894.29–8.8912.14–21.78safer6.99–13.753.49–9.6910.48–23.44actual12.004.0016.00
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.762.977.73safe3.18–6.351.55–4.384.73–10.73safer2.65–6.881.07–4.873.71–11.75actual4.001.005.00
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.473.839.30safe3.27–7.681.85–5.815.12–13.49safer2.67–8.271.31–6.343.99–14.62actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction52.2946.71safe45.97–58.6140.39–53.03safer44.38–60.2138.80–54.63actual45.0055.00
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction510455964safe444–575390–519835–1094safer427–593373–537799–1130actual419515934
Pass accuracy %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction87.8884.28safe83.66–92.0979.77–88.79safer82.36–93.3978.44–90.12actual84.0085.00
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1510.9522.10safe8.29–14.018.00–13.8916.30–27.90safer7.41–14.897.09–14.8114.50–29.71actual11.0010.0021.00
Offsides
27%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.773.03safe0.05–2.460.61–2.930.65–5.40safer0.00–2.810.28–3.270.00–6.08actual3.005.008.00
Yellow cards
35%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.344.42safe1.02–3.131.22–3.462.24–6.60safer0.75–3.410.93–3.751.68–7.16actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.196.13safe1.52–4.351.64–4.753.16–9.09safer1.13–4.741.21–5.182.34–9.92actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.51 0.32–2.77 | 2.00 | 1.30 0.44–2.16 0.19–2.41 | 1.00 | 2.85 1.02–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 3.00 | 43% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.04 3.18–6.89 2.68–7.39 | 5.00 | 4.00 2.29–5.71 1.82–6.18 | 4.00 | 9.04 5.47–12.60 4.50–13.57 | 9.00 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.18 11.48–18.88 10.45–19.91 | 14.00 | 11.59 8.21–14.97 7.28–15.90 | 9.00 | 26.77 19.69–33.85 17.73–35.81 | 23.00 | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 10.37 7.86–12.89 6.99–13.75 | 12.00 | 6.59 4.29–8.89 3.49–9.69 | 4.00 | 16.96 12.14–21.78 10.48–23.44 | 16.00 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 3.18–6.35 2.65–6.88 | 4.00 | 2.97 1.55–4.38 1.07–4.87 | 1.00 | 7.73 4.73–10.73 3.71–11.75 | 5.00 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 5.47 3.27–7.68 2.67–8.27 | 7.00 | 3.83 1.85–5.81 1.31–6.34 | 5.00 | 9.30 5.12–13.49 3.99–14.62 | 12.00 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 52.29 45.97–58.61 44.38–60.21 | 45.00 | 46.71 40.39–53.03 38.80–54.63 | 55.00 | — | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 510 444–575 427–593 | 419 | 455 390–519 373–537 | 515 | 964 835–1094 799–1130 | 934 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.88 83.66–92.09 82.36–93.39 | 84.00 | 84.28 79.77–88.79 78.44–90.12 | 85.00 | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Fouls | 11.15 8.29–14.01 7.41–14.89 | 11.00 | 10.95 8.00–13.89 7.09–14.81 | 10.00 | 22.10 16.30–27.90 14.50–29.71 | 21.00 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.26 0.05–2.46 0.00–2.81 | 3.00 | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.28–3.27 | 5.00 | 3.03 0.65–5.40 0.00–6.08 | 8.00 | 27% 23% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.02–3.13 0.75–3.41 | 1.00 | 2.34 1.22–3.46 0.93–3.75 | 1.00 | 4.42 2.24–6.60 1.68–7.16 | 2.00 | 35% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.52–4.35 1.13–4.74 | 3.00 | 3.19 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.18 | 3.00 | 6.13 3.16–9.09 2.34–9.92 | 6.00 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.