Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.152.61safe0.50–2.430.30–2.000.79–4.44safer0.24–2.680.07–2.230.31–4.92
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.948.67safe2.86–6.582.20–5.695.06–12.27safer2.37–7.071.74–6.154.11–13.23
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0310.4025.42safe11.10–18.956.84–13.9617.94–32.91safer10.01–20.045.88–14.9215.88–34.96
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.167.1416.30safe6.22–12.104.46–9.8210.68–21.92safer5.39–12.933.72–10.569.11–23.49
Blocked shots
60%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.197.59safe2.52–6.291.53–4.844.06–11.13safer1.98–6.831.04–5.333.02–12.16
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.593.719.30safe3.37–7.801.71–5.715.09–13.51safer2.80–8.371.18–6.253.98–14.62
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction53.5745.36safe46.78–60.3638.58–52.15safer45.11–62.0336.90–53.82
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction485388873safe418–552321–454739–1006safer400–571304–472703–1042
Pass accuracy %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction73.5470.92safe69.51–77.5766.59–75.24safer68.22–78.8765.28–76.55
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9211.6623.58safe9.08–14.768.71–14.6017.80–29.36safer8.33–15.517.97–15.3516.29–30.87
Offsides
17%
17%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.292.583.87safe0.13–2.451.49–3.681.62–6.12safer0.00–2.751.20–3.971.03–6.71
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.094.33safe1.19–3.290.96–3.212.15–6.51safer0.93–3.560.67–3.511.59–7.06
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.20safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.430.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.593.215.81safe1.16–4.031.66–4.772.82–8.80safer0.77–4.421.23–5.192.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.15 0.30–2.00 0.07–2.23 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 3.94 2.20–5.69 1.74–6.15 | 8.67 5.06–12.27 4.11–13.23 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.03 11.10–18.95 10.01–20.04 | 10.40 6.84–13.96 5.88–14.92 | 25.42 17.94–32.91 15.88–34.96 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.16 6.22–12.10 5.39–12.93 | 7.14 4.46–9.82 3.72–10.56 | 16.30 10.68–21.92 9.11–23.49 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.52–6.29 1.98–6.83 | 3.19 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 7.59 4.06–11.13 3.02–12.16 | 60% 13% 26% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.37–7.80 2.80–8.37 | 3.71 1.71–5.71 1.18–6.25 | 9.30 5.09–13.51 3.98–14.62 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 53.57 46.78–60.36 45.11–62.03 | 45.36 38.58–52.15 36.90–53.82 | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 485 418–552 400–571 | 388 321–454 304–472 | 873 739–1006 703–1042 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.54 69.51–77.57 68.22–78.87 | 70.92 66.59–75.24 65.28–76.55 | — | 61% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.92 9.08–14.76 8.33–15.51 | 11.66 8.71–14.60 7.97–15.35 | 23.58 17.80–29.36 16.29–30.87 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.29 0.13–2.45 0.00–2.75 | 2.58 1.49–3.68 1.20–3.97 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 17% 17% 65% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.93–3.56 | 2.09 0.96–3.21 0.67–3.51 | 4.33 2.15–6.51 1.59–7.06 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 5.81 2.82–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.