UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.062.90safe0.87–2.810.20–1.911.08–4.72safer0.62–3.060.00–2.140.60–5.20
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.493.719.20safe3.63–7.351.97–5.455.60–12.81safer3.14–7.841.50–5.924.64–13.76
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9210.3127.23safe13.00–20.856.74–13.8719.74–34.71safer11.91–21.945.78–14.8317.69–36.77
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.677.0318.70safe8.73–14.624.34–9.7113.08–24.32safer7.90–15.453.61–10.4411.51–25.89
Blocked shots
59%
13%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.533.367.89safe2.65–6.411.71–5.014.35–11.43safer2.11–6.961.21–5.503.32–12.46
Corners
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.513.6910.21safe4.30–8.731.69–5.695.99–14.42safer3.73–9.301.16–6.234.89–15.53
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.6745.76safe47.88–61.4638.98–52.54safer46.21–63.1337.30–54.22
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction518441959safe451–585374–507825–1092safer432–603357–525789–1128
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction74.8973.25safe70.86–78.9268.92–77.57safer69.57–80.2167.62–78.88
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1511.5123.66safe9.31–14.998.57–14.4617.88–29.45safer8.56–15.747.82–15.2116.38–30.95
Offsides
24%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.393.93safe0.38–2.701.30–3.491.68–6.19safer0.08–3.001.01–3.781.09–6.78
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.113.98safe0.82–2.920.98–3.241.80–6.16safer0.56–3.190.69–3.531.25–6.72
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.716.28safe1.14–4.012.15–5.263.29–9.27safer0.75–4.401.73–5.692.48–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.87–2.81 0.62–3.06 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 56% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.49 3.63–7.35 3.14–7.84 | 3.71 1.97–5.45 1.50–5.92 | 9.20 5.60–12.81 4.64–13.76 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 16.92 13.00–20.85 11.91–21.94 | 10.31 6.74–13.87 5.78–14.83 | 27.23 19.74–34.71 17.69–36.77 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 11.67 8.73–14.62 7.90–15.45 | 7.03 4.34–9.71 3.61–10.44 | 18.70 13.08–24.32 11.51–25.89 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.53 2.65–6.41 2.11–6.96 | 3.36 1.71–5.01 1.21–5.50 | 7.89 4.35–11.43 3.32–12.46 | 59% 13% 27% |
| Corners | 6.51 4.30–8.73 3.73–9.30 | 3.69 1.69–5.69 1.16–6.23 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 77% 15% |
| Possession % | 54.67 47.88–61.46 46.21–63.13 | 45.76 38.98–52.54 37.30–54.22 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 518 451–585 432–603 | 441 374–507 357–525 | 959 825–1092 789–1128 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.89 70.86–78.92 69.57–80.21 | 73.25 68.92–77.57 67.62–78.88 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.31–14.99 8.56–15.74 | 11.51 8.57–14.46 7.82–15.21 | 23.66 17.88–29.45 16.38–30.95 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.08–3.00 | 2.39 1.30–3.49 1.01–3.78 | 3.93 1.68–6.19 1.09–6.78 | 24% 19% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.71 2.15–5.26 1.73–5.69 | 6.28 3.29–9.27 2.48–10.09 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.