Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.103.07safe0.99–2.930.25–1.961.25–4.89safer0.74–3.180.02–2.190.77–5.37
Shots on target
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.483.9210.40safe4.62–8.342.18–5.666.80–14.01safer4.13–8.831.71–6.135.84–14.96
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction18.2610.3128.57safe14.34–22.186.74–13.8721.08–36.05safer13.24–23.285.78–14.8319.03–38.10
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction12.186.6618.84safe9.24–15.123.98–9.3413.22–24.47safer8.41–15.953.24–10.0811.65–26.03
Blocked shots
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.612.567.17safe2.72–6.490.91–4.223.63–10.70safer2.18–7.030.42–4.712.60–11.74
Corners
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.493.5510.04safe4.28–8.701.55–5.555.83–14.25safer3.70–9.281.02–6.084.72–15.36
Possession %
84%
homeawayprediction59.3441.26safe52.55–66.1334.48–48.05safer50.88–67.8032.80–49.72
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction570392962safe503–637326–458828–1096safer485–655308–476793–1131
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction77.3870.84safe73.35–81.4166.51–75.16safer72.06–82.7065.20–76.47
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8910.2221.12safe8.05–13.737.28–13.1715.33–26.90safer7.30–14.496.53–13.9213.83–28.40
Offsides
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.404.28safe0.71–3.031.31–3.502.02–6.53safer0.41–3.341.02–3.791.44–7.12
Yellow cards
35%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.653.14safe0.44–2.540.52–2.780.96–5.32safer0.17–2.800.23–3.070.40–5.87
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.976.50safe1.10–3.972.41–5.523.51–9.49safer0.71–4.361.99–5.952.69–10.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 0.99–2.93 0.74–3.18 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 3.07 1.25–4.89 0.77–5.37 | 57% 22% 21% |
| Shots on target | 6.48 4.62–8.34 4.13–8.83 | 3.92 2.18–5.66 1.71–6.13 | 10.40 6.80–14.01 5.84–14.96 | 74% 17% |
| Total shots | 18.26 14.34–22.18 13.24–23.28 | 10.31 6.74–13.87 5.78–14.83 | 28.57 21.08–36.05 19.03–38.10 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 12.18 9.24–15.12 8.41–15.95 | 6.66 3.98–9.34 3.24–10.08 | 18.84 13.22–24.47 11.65–26.03 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 2.72–6.49 2.18–7.03 | 2.56 0.91–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 7.17 3.63–10.70 2.60–11.74 | 72% 17% |
| Corners | 6.49 4.28–8.70 3.70–9.28 | 3.55 1.55–5.55 1.02–6.08 | 10.04 5.83–14.25 4.72–15.36 | 78% 14% |
| Possession % | 59.34 52.55–66.13 50.88–67.80 | 41.26 34.48–48.05 32.80–49.72 | — | 84% |
| Passes | 570 503–637 485–655 | 392 326–458 308–476 | 962 828–1096 793–1131 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.38 73.35–81.41 72.06–82.70 | 70.84 66.51–75.16 65.20–76.47 | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 10.89 8.05–13.73 7.30–14.49 | 10.22 7.28–13.17 6.53–13.92 | 21.12 15.33–26.90 13.83–28.40 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.34 | 2.40 1.31–3.50 1.02–3.79 | 4.28 2.02–6.53 1.44–7.12 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.17–2.80 | 1.65 0.52–2.78 0.23–3.07 | 3.14 0.96–5.32 0.40–5.87 | 35% 24% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.10–3.97 0.71–4.36 | 3.97 2.41–5.52 1.99–5.95 | 6.50 3.51–9.49 2.69–10.30 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.