UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 2·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 2·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.623.60safe1.02–2.950.77–2.481.78–5.43safer0.76–3.200.54–2.701.30–5.91
Shots on target
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.9110.54safe3.77–7.503.16–6.656.94–14.15safer3.28–7.992.70–7.115.98–15.10
Total shots
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9812.6026.59safe10.06–17.919.04–16.1619.10–34.07safer8.97–19.008.08–17.1217.05–36.12
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.908.4218.32safe6.96–12.845.74–11.1012.70–23.94safer6.13–13.675.00–11.8411.13–25.51
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.893.237.12safe2.01–5.781.58–4.883.59–10.66safer1.47–6.321.08–5.372.55–11.70
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.194.369.55safe2.98–7.402.36–6.365.33–13.76safer2.40–7.981.82–6.894.23–14.87
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction47.7851.88safe40.99–54.5745.09–58.66safer39.32–56.2443.42–60.34
Passes
35%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction5155591074safe448–582493–626941–1208safer429–600475–643905–1244
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction78.1482.75safe74.11–82.1778.42–87.07safer72.81–83.4677.11–88.38
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2510.3820.63safe7.42–13.097.43–13.3214.85–26.41safer6.66–13.856.68–14.0713.34–27.92
Offsides
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.705.07safe1.20–3.531.61–3.802.81–7.32safer0.90–3.831.32–4.082.22–7.91
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.733.55safe0.78–2.880.60–2.861.37–5.73safer0.51–3.140.31–3.150.82–6.29
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.506.62safe1.67–4.551.95–5.063.62–9.61safer1.29–4.931.52–5.492.81–10.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.98 1.02–2.95 0.76–3.20 | 1.62 0.77–2.48 0.54–2.70 | 3.60 1.78–5.43 1.30–5.91 | 47% 22% 32% |
| Shots on target | 5.64 3.77–7.50 3.28–7.99 | 4.91 3.16–6.65 2.70–7.11 | 10.54 6.94–14.15 5.98–15.10 | 53% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.98 10.06–17.91 8.97–19.00 | 12.60 9.04–16.16 8.08–17.12 | 26.59 19.10–34.07 17.05–36.12 | 57% 36% |
| Shots in box | 9.90 6.96–12.84 6.13–13.67 | 8.42 5.74–11.10 5.00–11.84 | 18.32 12.70–23.94 11.13–25.51 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.01–5.78 1.47–6.32 | 3.23 1.58–4.88 1.08–5.37 | 7.12 3.59–10.66 2.55–11.70 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.19 2.98–7.40 2.40–7.98 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.82–6.89 | 9.55 5.33–13.76 4.23–14.87 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.78 40.99–54.57 39.32–56.24 | 51.88 45.09–58.66 43.42–60.34 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 515 448–582 429–600 | 559 493–626 475–643 | 1074 941–1208 905–1244 | 35% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.14 74.11–82.17 72.81–83.46 | 82.75 78.42–87.07 77.11–88.38 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 10.25 7.42–13.09 6.66–13.85 | 10.38 7.43–13.32 6.68–14.07 | 20.63 14.85–26.41 13.34–27.92 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.37 1.20–3.53 0.90–3.83 | 2.70 1.61–3.80 1.32–4.08 | 5.07 2.81–7.32 2.22–7.91 | 35% 18% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 1.73 0.60–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.67–4.55 1.29–4.93 | 3.50 1.95–5.06 1.52–5.49 | 6.62 3.62–9.61 2.81–10.42 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.