UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.263.35safe1.12–3.060.40–2.111.53–5.17safer0.87–3.310.17–2.341.05–5.65
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.229.79safe3.70–7.422.48–5.976.18–13.39safer3.21–7.912.02–6.435.22–14.35
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8311.4027.23safe11.90–19.757.83–14.9619.74–34.71safer10.81–20.856.87–15.9217.69–36.76
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.177.7017.88safe7.23–13.115.02–10.3812.25–23.50safer6.40–13.944.29–11.1210.69–25.07
Blocked shots
65%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.262.716.97safe2.38–6.151.05–4.363.43–10.51safer1.84–6.690.56–4.852.40–11.54
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.863.919.77safe3.65–8.081.91–5.915.56–13.99safer3.08–8.651.38–6.444.45–15.09
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction56.6042.73safe49.81–63.3935.94–49.51safer48.14–65.0634.27–51.18
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction551417968safe484–618351–483834–1102safer466–636333–501799–1137
Pass accuracy %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction80.4078.02safe76.37–84.4373.70–82.35safer75.08–85.7272.39–83.66
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6812.4324.10safe8.84–14.529.48–15.3718.32–29.89safer8.09–15.278.73–16.1216.82–31.39
Offsides
18%
17%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.392.704.10safe0.23–2.551.61–3.801.84–6.35safer0.00–2.851.32–4.081.25–6.94
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.214.31safe1.05–3.141.08–3.342.13–6.49safer0.78–3.410.79–3.631.57–7.04
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.256.10safe1.42–4.291.69–4.813.11–9.09safer1.03–4.681.27–5.232.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.09 1.12–3.06 0.87–3.31 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 3.35 1.53–5.17 1.05–5.65 | 57% 21% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.56 3.70–7.42 3.21–7.91 | 4.22 2.48–5.97 2.02–6.43 | 9.79 6.18–13.39 5.22–14.35 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.83 11.90–19.75 10.81–20.85 | 11.40 7.83–14.96 6.87–15.92 | 27.23 19.74–34.71 17.69–36.76 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.17 7.23–13.11 6.40–13.94 | 7.70 5.02–10.38 4.29–11.12 | 17.88 12.25–23.50 10.69–25.07 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.26 2.38–6.15 1.84–6.69 | 2.71 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 6.97 3.43–10.51 2.40–11.54 | 65% 13% 21% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.65 | 3.91 1.91–5.91 1.38–6.44 | 9.77 5.56–13.99 4.45–15.09 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 56.60 49.81–63.39 48.14–65.06 | 42.73 35.94–49.51 34.27–51.18 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 551 484–618 466–636 | 417 351–483 333–501 | 968 834–1102 799–1137 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.40 76.37–84.43 75.08–85.72 | 78.02 73.70–82.35 72.39–83.66 | — | 60% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.84–14.52 8.09–15.27 | 12.43 9.48–15.37 8.73–16.12 | 24.10 18.32–29.89 16.82–31.39 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.85 | 2.70 1.61–3.80 1.32–4.08 | 4.10 1.84–6.35 1.25–6.94 | 18% 17% 65% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.05–3.14 0.78–3.41 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.31 2.13–6.49 1.57–7.04 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.25 1.69–4.81 1.27–5.23 | 6.10 3.11–9.09 2.30–9.91 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.