UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
68%
18%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.441.063.49safe1.47–3.400.20–1.911.67–5.32safer1.22–3.660.00–2.141.19–5.79
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.363.569.92safe4.49–8.221.82–5.306.31–13.52safer4.00–8.711.35–5.775.36–14.48
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5910.5627.15safe12.67–20.517.00–14.1219.66–34.64safer11.57–21.616.04–15.0817.61–36.69
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction11.137.0818.22safe8.19–14.084.40–9.7612.59–23.84safer7.36–14.903.67–10.5011.03–25.41
Blocked shots
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.422.136.55safe2.53–6.300.48–3.783.01–10.08safer1.99–6.840.00–4.281.98–11.12
Corners
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.423.519.94safe4.21–8.641.51–5.515.72–14.15safer3.64–9.210.98–6.054.62–15.26
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.5139.50safe53.72–67.3032.71–46.28safer52.05–68.9731.04–47.96
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction579362941safe512–646295–428807–1074safer494–664278–446771–1110
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction81.8776.05safe77.84–85.9071.73–80.38safer76.55–87.1970.42–81.69
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4512.8426.30safe10.61–16.299.90–15.7920.51–32.08safer9.86–17.059.15–16.5419.01–33.58
Offsides
18%
16%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.884.42safe0.37–2.691.79–3.982.16–6.67safer0.07–2.991.50–4.261.57–7.26
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.364.44safe1.03–3.121.23–3.492.26–6.62safer0.76–3.390.94–3.781.70–7.17
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.866.43safe1.13–4.002.31–5.423.44–9.42safer0.74–4.391.88–5.842.63–10.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.44 1.47–3.40 1.22–3.66 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 3.49 1.67–5.32 1.19–5.79 | 68% 18% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.36 4.49–8.22 4.00–8.71 | 3.56 1.82–5.30 1.35–5.77 | 9.92 6.31–13.52 5.36–14.48 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 16.59 12.67–20.51 11.57–21.61 | 10.56 7.00–14.12 6.04–15.08 | 27.15 19.66–34.64 17.61–36.69 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 11.13 8.19–14.08 7.36–14.90 | 7.08 4.40–9.76 3.67–10.50 | 18.22 12.59–23.84 11.03–25.41 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.42 2.53–6.30 1.99–6.84 | 2.13 0.48–3.78 0.00–4.28 | 6.55 3.01–10.08 1.98–11.12 | 76% 13% |
| Corners | 6.42 4.21–8.64 3.64–9.21 | 3.51 1.51–5.51 0.98–6.05 | 9.94 5.72–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 78% 14% |
| Possession % | 60.51 53.72–67.30 52.05–68.97 | 39.50 32.71–46.28 31.04–47.96 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 579 512–646 494–664 | 362 295–428 278–446 | 941 807–1074 771–1110 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.87 77.84–85.90 76.55–87.19 | 76.05 71.73–80.38 70.42–81.69 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 13.45 10.61–16.29 9.86–17.05 | 12.84 9.90–15.79 9.15–16.54 | 26.30 20.51–32.08 19.01–33.58 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–2.99 | 2.88 1.79–3.98 1.50–4.26 | 4.42 2.16–6.67 1.57–7.26 | 18% 16% 65% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.12 0.76–3.39 | 2.36 1.23–3.49 0.94–3.78 | 4.44 2.26–6.62 1.70–7.17 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.13–4.00 0.74–4.39 | 3.86 2.31–5.42 1.88–5.84 | 6.43 3.44–9.42 2.63–10.24 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.