UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.843.25safe0.44–2.380.99–2.691.42–5.07safer0.19–2.630.76–2.920.94–5.55
Shots on target
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.839.52safe2.82–6.553.09–6.575.91–13.12safer2.33–7.042.62–7.044.96–14.08
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6113.7125.32safe7.68–15.5310.15–17.2717.83–32.80safer6.59–16.629.19–18.2315.78–34.86
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.199.7117.90safe5.25–11.137.03–12.3912.28–23.53safer4.42–11.966.29–13.1310.71–25.09
Blocked shots
35%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.077.60safe1.65–5.412.42–5.724.06–11.13safer1.10–5.951.93–6.223.03–12.17
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.764.759.51safe2.55–6.982.75–6.755.30–13.72safer1.98–7.552.21–7.284.19–14.83
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.8451.46safe43.05–56.6344.67–58.24safer41.38–58.3043.00–59.91
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction485496980safe417–552429–562847–1114safer399–570412–580811–1150
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction73.7877.29safe69.75–77.8072.96–81.61safer68.45–79.1071.65–82.92
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2512.8323.08safe7.41–13.099.88–15.7717.29–28.86safer6.65–13.849.14–16.5215.79–30.36
Offsides
35%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.063.87safe0.65–2.970.97–3.161.62–6.13safer0.35–3.270.68–3.451.03–6.72
Yellow cards
28%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.404.16safe0.71–2.811.27–3.531.98–6.34safer0.44–3.070.98–3.821.42–6.89
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.006.10safe1.66–4.531.45–4.563.11–9.09safer1.27–4.921.02–4.982.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.84 0.99–2.69 0.76–2.92 | 3.25 1.42–5.07 0.94–5.55 | 30% 23% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.68 2.82–6.55 2.33–7.04 | 4.83 3.09–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 9.52 5.91–13.12 4.96–14.08 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Total shots | 11.61 7.68–15.53 6.59–16.62 | 13.71 10.15–17.27 9.19–18.23 | 25.32 17.83–32.80 15.78–34.86 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 8.19 5.25–11.13 4.42–11.96 | 9.71 7.03–12.39 6.29–13.13 | 17.90 12.28–23.53 10.71–25.09 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.10–5.95 | 4.07 2.42–5.72 1.93–6.22 | 7.60 4.06–11.13 3.03–12.17 | 35% 14% 50% |
| Corners | 4.76 2.55–6.98 1.98–7.55 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.21–7.28 | 9.51 5.30–13.72 4.19–14.83 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 49.84 43.05–56.63 41.38–58.30 | 51.46 44.67–58.24 43.00–59.91 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 485 417–552 399–570 | 496 429–562 412–580 | 980 847–1114 811–1150 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.78 69.75–77.80 68.45–79.10 | 77.29 72.96–81.61 71.65–82.92 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 10.25 7.41–13.09 6.65–13.84 | 12.83 9.88–15.77 9.14–16.52 | 23.08 17.29–28.86 15.79–30.36 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 2.06 0.97–3.16 0.68–3.45 | 3.87 1.62–6.13 1.03–6.72 | 35% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.16 1.98–6.34 1.42–6.89 | 28% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.10 1.66–4.53 1.27–4.92 | 3.00 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.98 | 6.10 3.11–9.09 2.30–9.91 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+