UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.283.48safe1.23–3.170.42–2.131.65–5.30safer0.98–3.420.19–2.361.17–5.78
Shots on target
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.794.2811.07safe4.93–8.652.54–6.027.47–14.68safer4.44–9.142.07–6.496.51–15.63
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction17.9312.0930.02safe14.01–21.868.53–15.6522.53–37.51safer12.91–22.957.57–16.6120.48–39.56
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction11.828.5220.34safe8.88–14.765.84–11.2014.71–25.96safer8.05–15.595.10–11.9413.15–27.53
Blocked shots
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.724.058.77safe2.84–6.602.40–5.715.24–12.31safer2.29–7.141.91–6.204.20–13.34
Corners
67%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.324.4110.74safe4.11–8.542.41–6.426.53–14.95safer3.54–9.111.88–6.955.42–16.06
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction53.2946.91safe46.50–60.0840.12–53.69safer44.83–61.7538.45–55.36
Passes
72%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction535464999safe468–603397–530866–1133safer450–621380–548830–1169
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction75.7775.37safe71.74–79.8071.04–79.69safer70.45–81.1069.73–81.00
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9510.2820.23safe7.11–12.797.33–13.2214.45–26.01safer6.36–13.546.58–13.9712.94–27.51
Offsides
67%
16%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.821.404.22safe1.66–3.980.31–2.491.97–6.48safer1.36–4.280.02–2.781.38–7.07
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.983.42safe0.39–2.490.85–3.111.24–5.60safer0.13–2.760.56–3.400.69–6.16
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
25%
13%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.984.307.28safe1.55–4.422.74–5.864.29–10.28safer1.16–4.812.32–6.283.48–11.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.23–3.17 0.98–3.42 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 3.48 1.65–5.30 1.17–5.78 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Shots on target | 6.79 4.93–8.65 4.44–9.14 | 4.28 2.54–6.02 2.07–6.49 | 11.07 7.47–14.68 6.51–15.63 | 73% 18% |
| Total shots | 17.93 14.01–21.86 12.91–22.95 | 12.09 8.53–15.65 7.57–16.61 | 30.02 22.53–37.51 20.48–39.56 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 11.82 8.88–14.76 8.05–15.59 | 8.52 5.84–11.20 5.10–11.94 | 20.34 14.71–25.96 13.15–27.53 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.72 2.84–6.60 2.29–7.14 | 4.05 2.40–5.71 1.91–6.20 | 8.77 5.24–12.31 4.20–13.34 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Corners | 6.32 4.11–8.54 3.54–9.11 | 4.41 2.41–6.42 1.88–6.95 | 10.74 6.53–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 67% 23% |
| Possession % | 53.29 46.50–60.08 44.83–61.75 | 46.91 40.12–53.69 38.45–55.36 | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 535 468–603 450–621 | 464 397–530 380–548 | 999 866–1133 830–1169 | 72% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.77 71.74–79.80 70.45–81.10 | 75.37 71.04–79.69 69.73–81.00 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 9.95 7.11–12.79 6.36–13.54 | 10.28 7.33–13.22 6.58–13.97 | 20.23 14.45–26.01 12.94–27.51 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.82 1.66–3.98 1.36–4.28 | 1.40 0.31–2.49 0.02–2.78 | 4.22 1.97–6.48 1.38–7.07 | 67% 16% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.42 1.24–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.55–4.42 1.16–4.81 | 4.30 2.74–5.86 2.32–6.28 | 7.28 4.29–10.28 3.48–11.09 | 25% 13% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.