UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Willy Delajod
Goals
70%
17%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.420.953.37safe1.45–3.380.09–1.811.54–5.19safer1.19–3.640.00–2.061.04–5.69actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.523.5010.02safe4.66–8.371.79–5.216.45–13.58safer4.16–8.871.32–5.685.49–14.55actual10.000.0010.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction18.1410.4928.64safe14.44–21.857.12–13.8721.56–35.72safer13.41–22.886.18–14.8019.60–37.68actual21.0011.0032.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction12.656.3519.00safe10.14–15.174.05–8.6514.18–23.82safer9.27–16.033.25–9.4512.52–25.48actual15.006.0021.00
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.452.447.90safe3.87–7.041.03–3.864.90–10.89safer3.34–7.570.54–4.343.88–11.92actual6.006.0012.00
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.593.189.77safe4.39–8.801.20–5.165.59–13.96safer3.79–9.390.66–5.704.46–15.09actual7.002.009.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction63.2436.45safe56.92–69.5630.14–42.77safer55.33–71.1528.54–44.37actual58.0042.00
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction572333905safe507–637268–397775–1034safer489–655250–415739–1070actual6244551079
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction87.8576.82safe83.63–92.0672.31–81.32safer82.33–93.3670.98–82.65
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1010.5720.67safe7.24–12.957.62–13.5114.86–26.47safer6.36–13.846.70–14.4313.06–28.27actual12.0013.0025.00
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.603.08safe0.27–2.690.44–2.770.71–5.46safer0.00–3.030.11–3.100.04–6.13actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.193.61safe0.37–2.481.06–3.311.44–5.79safer0.10–2.750.77–3.600.87–6.35actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
13%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.544.186.73safe1.13–3.962.63–5.743.76–9.69safer0.74–4.352.20–6.172.94–10.52actual0.005.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.42 1.45–3.38 1.19–3.64 | 4.00 | 0.95 0.09–1.81 0.00–2.06 | 0.00 | 3.37 1.54–5.19 1.04–5.69 | 4.00 | 70% 17% 13% |
| Shots on target | 6.52 4.66–8.37 4.16–8.87 | 10.00 | 3.50 1.79–5.21 1.32–5.68 | 0.00 | 10.02 6.45–13.58 5.49–14.55 | 10.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 18.14 14.44–21.85 13.41–22.88 | 21.00 | 10.49 7.12–13.87 6.18–14.80 | 11.00 | 28.64 21.56–35.72 19.60–37.68 | 32.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 12.65 10.14–15.17 9.27–16.03 | 15.00 | 6.35 4.05–8.65 3.25–9.45 | 6.00 | 19.00 14.18–23.82 12.52–25.48 | 21.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 5.45 3.87–7.04 3.34–7.57 | 6.00 | 2.44 1.03–3.86 0.54–4.34 | 6.00 | 7.90 4.90–10.89 3.88–11.92 | 12.00 | 82% |
| Corners | 6.59 4.39–8.80 3.79–9.39 | 7.00 | 3.18 1.20–5.16 0.66–5.70 | 2.00 | 9.77 5.59–13.96 4.46–15.09 | 9.00 | 83% |
| Possession % | 63.24 56.92–69.56 55.33–71.15 | 58.00 | 36.45 30.14–42.77 28.54–44.37 | 42.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 572 507–637 489–655 | 624 | 333 268–397 250–415 | 455 | 905 775–1034 739–1070 | 1079 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.85 83.63–92.06 82.33–93.36 | — | 76.82 72.31–81.32 70.98–82.65 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 10.10 7.24–12.95 6.36–13.84 | 12.00 | 10.57 7.62–13.51 6.70–14.43 | 13.00 | 20.67 14.86–26.47 13.06–28.27 | 25.00 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.27–2.69 0.00–3.03 | 0.00 | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.11–3.10 | 0.00 | 3.08 0.71–5.46 0.04–6.13 | 0.00 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.37–2.48 0.10–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.19 1.06–3.31 0.77–3.60 | 1.00 | 3.61 1.44–5.79 0.87–6.35 | 2.00 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.35 | 0.00 | 4.18 2.63–5.74 2.20–6.17 | 5.00 | 6.73 3.76–9.69 2.94–10.52 | 5.00 | 20% 13% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.