Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Glenn Nyberg · Sweden
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.532.86safe0.37–2.290.67–2.391.04–4.68safer0.11–2.550.42–2.630.53–5.19actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.824.848.67safe1.97–5.683.14–6.555.10–12.23safer1.47–6.182.67–7.024.14–13.20actual3.008.0011.00
Total shots
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7812.8424.62safe8.07–15.489.46–16.2217.53–31.70safer7.04–16.518.53–17.1515.57–33.66actual5.0026.0031.00
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.069.2117.26safe5.54–10.576.91–11.5112.45–22.08safer4.68–11.446.11–12.3010.79–23.74actual2.0015.0017.00
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.446.98safe1.96–5.122.02–4.853.98–9.98safer1.42–5.661.54–5.342.96–11.00actual2.007.009.00
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.564.599.14safe2.35–6.762.61–6.564.96–13.33safer1.76–7.362.07–7.103.83–14.46actual0.006.006.00
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.3049.14safe43.98–56.6242.82–55.46safer42.39–58.2141.23–57.06actual42.0058.00
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction503479981safe437–568414–543852–1111safer420–586397–561816–1147actual4466081054
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction88.0786.16safe83.86–92.2981.65–90.66safer82.56–93.5980.32–91.99
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3310.8821.22safe7.48–13.197.94–13.8315.42–27.02safer6.59–14.077.02–14.7513.61–28.82actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
34%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.422.69safe0.06–2.480.26–2.580.32–5.07safer0.00–2.830.00–2.920.00–5.74actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.873.58safe0.66–2.770.75–2.991.41–5.76safer0.38–3.040.46–3.280.85–6.32actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.10safe0.00–0.200.00–0.250.00–0.45safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.645.66safe1.61–4.441.09–4.192.69–8.63safer1.22–4.830.65–4.631.87–9.45actual6.003.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.29 0.11–2.55 | 0.00 | 1.53 0.67–2.39 0.42–2.63 | 1.00 | 2.86 1.04–4.68 0.53–5.19 | 1.00 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.82 1.97–5.68 1.47–6.18 | 3.00 | 4.84 3.14–6.55 2.67–7.02 | 8.00 | 8.67 5.10–12.23 4.14–13.20 | 11.00 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.78 8.07–15.48 7.04–16.51 | 5.00 | 12.84 9.46–16.22 8.53–17.15 | 26.00 | 24.62 17.53–31.70 15.57–33.66 | 31.00 | 38% 55% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.54–10.57 4.68–11.44 | 2.00 | 9.21 6.91–11.51 6.11–12.30 | 15.00 | 17.26 12.45–22.08 10.79–23.74 | 17.00 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.96–5.12 1.42–5.66 | 2.00 | 3.44 2.02–4.85 1.54–5.34 | 7.00 | 6.98 3.98–9.98 2.96–11.00 | 9.00 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.56 2.35–6.76 1.76–7.36 | 0.00 | 4.59 2.61–6.56 2.07–7.10 | 6.00 | 9.14 4.96–13.33 3.83–14.46 | 6.00 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 50.30 43.98–56.62 42.39–58.21 | 42.00 | 49.14 42.82–55.46 41.23–57.06 | 58.00 | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 503 437–568 420–586 | 446 | 479 414–543 397–561 | 608 | 981 852–1111 816–1147 | 1054 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.07 83.86–92.29 82.56–93.59 | — | 86.16 81.65–90.66 80.32–91.99 | — | — | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 10.33 7.48–13.19 6.59–14.07 | 12.00 | 10.88 7.94–13.83 7.02–14.75 | 11.00 | 21.22 15.42–27.02 13.61–28.82 | 23.00 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.27 0.06–2.48 0.00–2.83 | 1.00 | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.92 | 1.00 | 2.69 0.32–5.07 0.00–5.74 | 2.00 | 34% 26% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.77 0.38–3.04 | 2.00 | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | 1.00 | 3.58 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 3.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.61–4.44 1.22–4.83 | 6.00 | 2.64 1.09–4.19 0.65–4.63 | 3.00 | 5.66 2.69–8.63 1.87–9.45 | 9.00 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+