UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.433.00safe0.60–2.540.58–2.291.18–4.83safer0.35–2.790.35–2.520.70–5.31
Shots on target
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.215.1010.31safe3.35–7.073.36–6.846.71–13.92safer2.86–7.562.89–7.315.75–14.87
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2813.7529.03safe11.35–19.2010.19–17.3121.54–36.52safer10.26–20.299.23–18.2719.49–38.57
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction10.419.3019.71safe7.47–13.356.62–11.9814.09–25.33safer6.64–14.185.88–12.7212.52–26.90
Blocked shots
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.334.228.55safe2.44–6.212.57–5.885.01–12.08safer1.90–6.752.08–6.373.98–13.12
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.6910.11safe3.21–7.632.69–6.695.90–14.32safer2.63–8.212.16–7.224.79–15.43
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.7549.58safe43.96–57.5442.80–56.37safer42.29–59.2141.13–58.04
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction506477983safe439–573410–543849–1117safer421–592393–561814–1152
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction76.2678.90safe72.23–80.2974.58–83.23safer70.94–81.5873.27–84.53
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction9.399.6619.05safe6.55–12.236.72–12.6113.27–24.84safer5.79–12.985.97–13.3611.77–26.34
Offsides
52%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.353.34safe0.83–3.150.26–2.451.09–5.59safer0.52–3.450.00–2.740.50–6.18
Yellow cards
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.663.09safe0.39–2.480.53–2.790.92–5.27safer0.12–2.750.24–3.080.36–5.83
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.76
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.416.62safe1.78–4.651.85–4.963.63–9.61safer1.39–5.041.43–5.392.82–10.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.54 0.35–2.79 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 3.00 1.18–4.83 0.70–5.31 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.21 3.35–7.07 2.86–7.56 | 5.10 3.36–6.84 2.89–7.31 | 10.31 6.71–13.92 5.75–14.87 | 45% 42% |
| Total shots | 15.28 11.35–19.20 10.26–20.29 | 13.75 10.19–17.31 9.23–18.27 | 29.03 21.54–36.52 19.49–38.57 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 10.41 7.47–13.35 6.64–14.18 | 9.30 6.62–11.98 5.88–12.72 | 19.71 14.09–25.33 12.52–26.90 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 4.33 2.44–6.21 1.90–6.75 | 4.22 2.57–5.88 2.08–6.37 | 8.55 5.01–12.08 3.98–13.12 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.63 2.63–8.21 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.16–7.22 | 10.11 5.90–14.32 4.79–15.43 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 50.75 43.96–57.54 42.29–59.21 | 49.58 42.80–56.37 41.13–58.04 | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 506 439–573 421–592 | 477 410–543 393–561 | 983 849–1117 814–1152 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.26 72.23–80.29 70.94–81.58 | 78.90 74.58–83.23 73.27–84.53 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 9.39 6.55–12.23 5.79–12.98 | 9.66 6.72–12.61 5.97–13.36 | 19.05 13.27–24.84 11.77–26.34 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.52–3.45 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.34 1.09–5.59 0.50–6.18 | 52% 22% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.48 0.12–2.75 | 1.66 0.53–2.79 0.24–3.08 | 3.09 0.92–5.27 0.36–5.83 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.43–5.39 | 6.62 3.63–9.61 2.82–10.43 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.