UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
59%
20%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.263.46safe1.23–3.170.41–2.121.64–5.28safer0.98–3.420.18–2.341.16–5.76
Shots on target
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.554.0010.55safe4.69–8.412.26–5.746.95–14.16safer4.20–8.901.79–6.215.99–15.11
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction17.5910.3727.96safe13.66–21.516.81–13.9420.47–35.45safer12.57–22.605.85–14.9018.42–37.50
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction13.116.9820.09safe10.17–16.054.30–9.6614.47–25.71safer9.34–16.883.56–10.4012.90–27.28
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.762.847.60safe2.88–6.641.19–4.504.07–11.14safer2.33–7.180.70–4.993.03–12.17
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.603.4210.02safe4.39–8.811.42–5.425.81–14.23safer3.81–9.390.89–5.964.70–15.34
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.9645.52safe48.17–61.7538.73–52.30safer46.50–63.4237.06–53.97
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5474691017safe480–615403–536883–1150safer462–633385–553847–1186
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction79.6275.47safe75.59–83.6471.14–79.79safer74.29–84.9469.83–81.10
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction9.529.3918.91safe6.68–12.366.45–12.3413.13–24.69safer5.92–13.115.70–13.0811.62–26.20
Offsides
60%
20%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.231.243.48safe1.07–3.390.15–2.341.22–5.73safer0.77–3.690.00–2.620.63–6.32
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.683.31safe0.58–2.680.55–2.811.13–5.49safer0.31–2.950.26–3.100.58–6.05
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
23%
13%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.784.247.01safe1.34–4.212.68–5.794.02–10.01safer0.95–4.602.26–6.223.21–10.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.23–3.17 0.98–3.42 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.34 | 3.46 1.64–5.28 1.16–5.76 | 59% 20% 21% |
| Shots on target | 6.55 4.69–8.41 4.20–8.90 | 4.00 2.26–5.74 1.79–6.21 | 10.55 6.95–14.16 5.99–15.11 | 74% 17% |
| Total shots | 17.59 13.66–21.51 12.57–22.60 | 10.37 6.81–13.94 5.85–14.90 | 27.96 20.47–35.45 18.42–37.50 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 13.11 10.17–16.05 9.34–16.88 | 6.98 4.30–9.66 3.56–10.40 | 20.09 14.47–25.71 12.90–27.28 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.76 2.88–6.64 2.33–7.18 | 2.84 1.19–4.50 0.70–4.99 | 7.60 4.07–11.14 3.03–12.17 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.60 4.39–8.81 3.81–9.39 | 3.42 1.42–5.42 0.89–5.96 | 10.02 5.81–14.23 4.70–15.34 | 80% |
| Possession % | 54.96 48.17–61.75 46.50–63.42 | 45.52 38.73–52.30 37.06–53.97 | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 547 480–615 462–633 | 469 403–536 385–553 | 1017 883–1150 847–1186 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.62 75.59–83.64 74.29–84.94 | 75.47 71.14–79.79 69.83–81.10 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 9.52 6.68–12.36 5.92–13.11 | 9.39 6.45–12.34 5.70–13.08 | 18.91 13.13–24.69 11.62–26.20 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.23 1.07–3.39 0.77–3.69 | 1.24 0.15–2.34 0.00–2.62 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 60% 20% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.31–2.95 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.31 1.13–5.49 0.58–6.05 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 4.24 2.68–5.79 2.26–6.22 | 7.01 4.02–10.01 3.21–10.82 | 23% 13% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.