UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
21%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.553.66safe1.14–3.080.69–2.401.84–5.48safer0.89–3.330.46–2.631.36–5.96
Shots on target
56%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction6.075.0911.16safe4.21–7.933.35–6.847.56–14.77safer3.72–8.422.89–7.306.60–15.72
Total shots
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7013.6928.39safe10.78–18.6310.13–17.2520.90–35.88safer9.69–19.729.17–18.2118.85–37.93
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction10.309.1219.42safe7.36–13.246.44–11.8013.80–25.05safer6.53–14.075.70–12.5412.23–26.61
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.667.17safe1.62–5.392.01–5.323.64–10.71safer1.08–5.931.52–5.812.60–11.74
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.484.6810.17safe3.27–7.702.68–6.685.95–14.38safer2.70–8.272.15–7.214.84–15.49
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.1153.57safe39.32–52.9046.78–60.35safer37.65–54.5745.11–62.02
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction5155791094safe448–582512–645960–1227safer430–600495–663924–1263
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction74.9181.21safe70.88–78.9476.89–85.54safer69.59–80.2375.58–86.84
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1110.3319.45safe6.28–11.957.39–13.2813.67–25.23safer5.52–12.716.64–14.0312.16–26.73
Offsides
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.542.547.08safe3.38–5.701.45–3.644.83–9.33safer3.08–6.001.16–3.934.24–9.92
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.933.39safe0.40–2.500.81–3.061.21–5.56safer0.14–2.770.51–3.360.65–6.12
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.523.677.18safe2.08–4.952.11–5.224.19–10.18safer1.69–5.341.68–5.653.38–10.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.11 1.14–3.08 0.89–3.33 | 1.55 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.63 | 3.66 1.84–5.48 1.36–5.96 | 51% 21% 28% |
| Shots on target | 6.07 4.21–7.93 3.72–8.42 | 5.09 3.35–6.84 2.89–7.30 | 11.16 7.56–14.77 6.60–15.72 | 56% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.70 10.78–18.63 9.69–19.72 | 13.69 10.13–17.25 9.17–18.21 | 28.39 20.90–35.88 18.85–37.93 | 54% 39% |
| Shots in box | 10.30 7.36–13.24 6.53–14.07 | 9.12 6.44–11.80 5.70–12.54 | 19.42 13.80–25.05 12.23–26.61 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.62–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.66 2.01–5.32 1.52–5.81 | 7.17 3.64–10.71 2.60–11.74 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.70 2.70–8.27 | 4.68 2.68–6.68 2.15–7.21 | 10.17 5.95–14.38 4.84–15.49 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 46.11 39.32–52.90 37.65–54.57 | 53.57 46.78–60.35 45.11–62.02 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 515 448–582 430–600 | 579 512–645 495–663 | 1094 960–1227 924–1263 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.91 70.88–78.94 69.59–80.23 | 81.21 76.89–85.54 75.58–86.84 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 9.11 6.28–11.95 5.52–12.71 | 10.33 7.39–13.28 6.64–14.03 | 19.45 13.67–25.23 12.16–26.73 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 4.54 3.38–5.70 3.08–6.00 | 2.54 1.45–3.64 1.16–3.93 | 7.08 4.83–9.33 4.24–9.92 | 71% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.14–2.77 | 1.93 0.81–3.06 0.51–3.36 | 3.39 1.21–5.56 0.65–6.12 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.52 2.08–4.95 1.69–5.34 | 3.67 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.65 | 7.18 4.19–10.18 3.38–10.99 | 40% 15% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.