UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.283.33safe1.09–3.020.42–2.131.51–5.16safer0.83–3.270.20–2.361.03–5.63
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.033.949.97safe4.16–7.892.20–5.696.37–13.58safer3.67–8.381.74–6.155.41–14.53
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3410.3425.68safe11.41–19.266.78–13.9118.20–33.17safer10.32–20.365.82–14.8616.14–35.22
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.527.0817.61safe7.58–13.474.40–9.7611.98–23.23safer6.75–14.303.66–10.5010.42–24.80
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.122.746.86safe2.23–6.001.09–4.403.32–10.39safer1.69–6.540.60–4.892.29–11.43
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.173.389.54safe3.95–8.381.38–5.385.33–13.76safer3.38–8.950.84–5.914.22–14.86
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction61.9638.87safe55.17–68.7532.09–45.66safer53.50–70.4230.42–47.33
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction6574291087safe590–725363–496953–1220safer572–743345–513917–1256
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction80.4174.83safe76.38–84.4470.50–79.15safer75.09–85.7369.19–80.46
Fouls
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2012.8422.04safe6.37–12.049.90–15.7916.26–27.83safer5.61–12.809.15–16.5314.76–29.33
Offsides
27%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.854.90safe0.89–3.211.76–3.942.65–7.15safer0.59–3.511.47–4.232.06–7.74
Yellow cards
25%
21%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.153.55safe0.35–2.451.02–3.271.37–5.72safer0.08–2.720.73–3.570.81–6.28
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.936.80safe1.43–4.302.37–5.493.81–9.79safer1.04–4.691.95–5.912.99–10.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.05 1.09–3.02 0.83–3.27 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 3.33 1.51–5.16 1.03–5.63 | 55% 21% 23% |
| Shots on target | 6.03 4.16–7.89 3.67–8.38 | 3.94 2.20–5.69 1.74–6.15 | 9.97 6.37–13.58 5.41–14.53 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 15.34 11.41–19.26 10.32–20.36 | 10.34 6.78–13.91 5.82–14.86 | 25.68 18.20–33.17 16.14–35.22 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.52 7.58–13.47 6.75–14.30 | 7.08 4.40–9.76 3.66–10.50 | 17.61 11.98–23.23 10.42–24.80 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.23–6.00 1.69–6.54 | 2.74 1.09–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 6.86 3.32–10.39 2.29–11.43 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 6.17 3.95–8.38 3.38–8.95 | 3.38 1.38–5.38 0.84–5.91 | 9.54 5.33–13.76 4.22–14.86 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 61.96 55.17–68.75 53.50–70.42 | 38.87 32.09–45.66 30.42–47.33 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 657 590–725 572–743 | 429 363–496 345–513 | 1087 953–1220 917–1256 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.41 76.38–84.44 75.09–85.73 | 74.83 70.50–79.15 69.19–80.46 | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 9.20 6.37–12.04 5.61–12.80 | 12.84 9.90–15.79 9.15–16.53 | 22.04 16.26–27.83 14.76–29.33 | 19% 75% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 2.85 1.76–3.94 1.47–4.23 | 4.90 2.65–7.15 2.06–7.74 | 27% 18% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.45 0.08–2.72 | 2.15 1.02–3.27 0.73–3.57 | 3.55 1.37–5.72 0.81–6.28 | 25% 21% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.93 2.37–5.49 1.95–5.91 | 6.80 3.81–9.79 2.99–10.60 | 27% 14% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.