UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mykola Balakin · Ukraine
Goals
85%
homeawaytotalprediction3.270.744.01safe2.30–4.230.00–1.602.18–5.83safer2.04–4.490.00–1.851.68–6.34actual6.001.007.00
Shots on target
97%
homeawaytotalprediction8.652.2810.94safe6.80–10.510.58–3.997.37–14.50safer6.30–11.010.11–4.466.40–15.47actual14.004.0018.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction21.516.3127.82safe17.81–25.212.93–9.6920.74–34.90safer16.78–26.242.00–10.6218.78–36.86actual35.009.0044.00
Shots in box
99%
homeawaytotalprediction14.024.0218.04safe11.50–16.531.72–6.3213.22–22.86safer10.64–17.400.92–7.1211.56–24.52actual24.005.0029.00
Blocked shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction5.331.817.14safe3.75–6.910.39–3.224.14–10.14safer3.21–7.450.00–3.713.12–11.16actual6.003.009.00
Corners
95%
homeawaytotalprediction8.022.3210.35safe5.82–10.230.35–4.306.16–14.53safer5.22–10.820.00–4.845.03–15.66actual7.002.009.00
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction69.2431.12safe62.92–75.5624.80–37.44safer61.33–77.1623.21–39.04actual72.0028.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction7133171030safe648–778253–382900–1160safer630–796235–400865–1195actual7322851017
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction88.8677.62safe84.65–93.0873.11–82.12safer83.35–94.3871.78–83.45
Fouls
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.757.5317.27safe6.89–12.614.58–10.4711.47–23.08safer6.01–13.493.66–11.399.67–24.88actual8.006.0014.00
Offsides
49%
19%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.441.964.40safe1.23–3.650.80–3.132.03–6.78safer0.89–3.990.47–3.461.35–7.45actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.872.83safe0.00–2.020.74–2.990.65–5.00safer0.00–2.290.45–3.280.09–5.57actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.15safe0.00–0.190.00–0.300.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
87%
homeawaytotalprediction1.574.806.37safe0.15–2.983.25–6.353.40–9.33safer0.00–3.372.81–6.792.58–10.16actual3.008.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.27 2.30–4.23 2.04–4.49 | 6.00 | 0.74 0.00–1.60 0.00–1.85 | 1.00 | 4.01 2.18–5.83 1.68–6.34 | 7.00 | 85% |
| Shots on target | 8.65 6.80–10.51 6.30–11.01 | 14.00 | 2.28 0.58–3.99 0.11–4.46 | 4.00 | 10.94 7.37–14.50 6.40–15.47 | 18.00 | 97% |
| Total shots | 21.51 17.81–25.21 16.78–26.24 | 35.00 | 6.31 2.93–9.69 2.00–10.62 | 9.00 | 27.82 20.74–34.90 18.78–36.86 | 44.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 14.02 11.50–16.53 10.64–17.40 | 24.00 | 4.02 1.72–6.32 0.92–7.12 | 5.00 | 18.04 13.22–22.86 11.56–24.52 | 29.00 | 99% |
| Blocked shots | 5.33 3.75–6.91 3.21–7.45 | 6.00 | 1.81 0.39–3.22 0.00–3.71 | 3.00 | 7.14 4.14–10.14 3.12–11.16 | 9.00 | 88% |
| Corners | 8.02 5.82–10.23 5.22–10.82 | 7.00 | 2.32 0.35–4.30 0.00–4.84 | 2.00 | 10.35 6.16–14.53 5.03–15.66 | 9.00 | 95% |
| Possession % | 69.24 62.92–75.56 61.33–77.16 | 72.00 | 31.12 24.80–37.44 23.21–39.04 | 28.00 | — | — | 99% |
| Passes | 713 648–778 630–796 | 732 | 317 253–382 235–400 | 285 | 1030 900–1160 865–1195 | 1017 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.86 84.65–93.08 83.35–94.38 | — | 77.62 73.11–82.12 71.78–83.45 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 9.75 6.89–12.61 6.01–13.49 | 8.00 | 7.53 4.58–10.47 3.66–11.39 | 6.00 | 17.27 11.47–23.08 9.67–24.88 | 14.00 | 66% 26% |
| Offsides | 2.44 1.23–3.65 0.89–3.99 | 4.00 | 1.96 0.80–3.13 0.47–3.46 | 1.00 | 4.40 2.03–6.78 1.35–7.45 | 5.00 | 49% 19% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 0.96 0.00–2.02 0.00–2.29 | 0.00 | 1.87 0.74–2.99 0.45–3.28 | 1.00 | 2.83 0.65–5.00 0.09–5.57 | 1.00 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.57 0.15–2.98 0.00–3.37 | 3.00 | 4.80 3.25–6.35 2.81–6.79 | 8.00 | 6.37 3.40–9.33 2.58–10.16 | 11.00 | 87% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.