UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.402.88safe0.51–2.440.55–2.261.06–4.70safer0.26–2.700.32–2.480.58–5.18
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.339.24safe3.04–6.772.59–6.085.63–12.84safer2.55–7.262.13–6.544.68–13.80
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2212.1626.38safe10.30–18.158.59–15.7218.89–33.87safer9.21–19.247.63–16.6816.84–35.92
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.778.6717.45safe5.83–11.725.99–11.3611.83–23.07safer5.00–12.555.26–12.0910.26–24.64
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.447.32safe2.00–5.771.78–5.093.79–10.86safer1.46–6.311.29–5.582.75–11.89
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.224.609.82safe3.01–7.442.60–6.605.61–14.04safer2.44–8.012.07–7.134.50–15.15
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.9745.04safe48.18–61.7638.26–51.83safer46.51–63.4336.58–53.50
Passes
79%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction540441981safe473–607375–508847–1115safer454–625357–525812–1150
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction75.2574.31safe71.22–79.2869.99–78.64safer69.93–80.5768.68–79.95
Fouls
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0010.7220.71safe7.16–12.837.77–13.6614.93–26.49safer6.40–13.597.02–14.4113.43–28.00
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.543.28safe0.58–2.900.45–2.631.03–5.53safer0.28–3.200.16–2.920.44–6.12
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.043.47safe0.38–2.480.91–3.171.29–5.65safer0.12–2.750.62–3.460.73–6.21
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.336.29safe1.52–4.391.77–4.883.29–9.28safer1.13–4.781.35–5.312.48–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.26–2.70 | 1.40 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.48 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.77 2.55–7.26 | 4.33 2.59–6.08 2.13–6.54 | 9.24 5.63–12.84 4.68–13.80 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.22 10.30–18.15 9.21–19.24 | 12.16 8.59–15.72 7.63–16.68 | 26.38 18.89–33.87 16.84–35.92 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.77 5.83–11.72 5.00–12.55 | 8.67 5.99–11.36 5.26–12.09 | 17.45 11.83–23.07 10.26–24.64 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.77 1.46–6.31 | 3.44 1.78–5.09 1.29–5.58 | 7.32 3.79–10.86 2.75–11.89 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.01–7.44 2.44–8.01 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.07–7.13 | 9.82 5.61–14.04 4.50–15.15 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 54.97 48.18–61.76 46.51–63.43 | 45.04 38.26–51.83 36.58–53.50 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 540 473–607 454–625 | 441 375–508 357–525 | 981 847–1115 812–1150 | 79% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.25 71.22–79.28 69.93–80.57 | 74.31 69.99–78.64 68.68–79.95 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 10.00 7.16–12.83 6.40–13.59 | 10.72 7.77–13.66 7.02–14.41 | 20.71 14.93–26.49 13.43–28.00 | 39% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.54 0.45–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 3.28 1.03–5.53 0.44–6.12 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 0.38–2.48 0.12–2.75 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.73–6.21 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 3.33 1.77–4.88 1.35–5.31 | 6.29 3.29–9.28 2.48–10.09 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.