UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.513.27safe0.79–2.730.66–2.361.45–5.09safer0.54–2.980.43–2.590.97–5.57
Shots on target
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction6.244.8711.11safe4.38–8.113.12–6.617.51–14.72safer3.89–8.602.66–7.086.55–15.67
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction17.4312.4629.89safe13.50–21.358.90–16.0222.40–37.38safer12.41–22.447.94–16.9820.35–39.43
Shots in box
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction11.328.7720.09safe8.37–14.266.09–11.4614.47–25.71safer7.54–15.095.36–12.1912.90–27.28
Blocked shots
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.063.548.60safe3.18–6.941.89–5.205.07–12.14safer2.64–7.491.40–5.694.03–13.18
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.964.8410.81safe3.75–8.182.84–6.856.59–15.02safer3.17–8.752.31–7.385.49–16.13
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction54.8444.69safe48.05–61.6337.91–51.48safer46.38–63.3036.24–53.15
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction532432964safe464–599366–498830–1097safer446–617348–516794–1133
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction76.3375.60safe72.30–80.3671.27–79.92safer71.01–81.6569.96–81.23
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction9.659.9319.58safe6.81–12.496.99–12.8813.80–25.36safer6.06–13.246.24–13.6212.29–26.87
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.343.26safe0.76–3.080.25–2.431.00–5.51safer0.45–3.380.00–2.720.41–6.10
Yellow cards
28%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.003.44safe0.39–2.490.87–3.131.26–5.62safer0.12–2.760.58–3.420.70–6.17
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.004.017.01safe1.57–4.442.46–5.574.02–10.01safer1.18–4.832.03–5.993.21–10.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.73 0.54–2.98 | 1.51 0.66–2.36 0.43–2.59 | 3.27 1.45–5.09 0.97–5.57 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Shots on target | 6.24 4.38–8.11 3.89–8.60 | 4.87 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.08 | 11.11 7.51–14.72 6.55–15.67 | 60% 29% |
| Total shots | 17.43 13.50–21.35 12.41–22.44 | 12.46 8.90–16.02 7.94–16.98 | 29.89 22.40–37.38 20.35–39.43 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 11.32 8.37–14.26 7.54–15.09 | 8.77 6.09–11.46 5.36–12.19 | 20.09 14.47–25.71 12.90–27.28 | 68% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 3.18–6.94 2.64–7.49 | 3.54 1.89–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 8.60 5.07–12.14 4.03–13.18 | 63% 24% |
| Corners | 5.96 3.75–8.18 3.17–8.75 | 4.84 2.84–6.85 2.31–7.38 | 10.81 6.59–15.02 5.49–16.13 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 54.84 48.05–61.63 46.38–63.30 | 44.69 37.91–51.48 36.24–53.15 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 532 464–599 446–617 | 432 366–498 348–516 | 964 830–1097 794–1133 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.33 72.30–80.36 71.01–81.65 | 75.60 71.27–79.92 69.96–81.23 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 9.65 6.81–12.49 6.06–13.24 | 9.93 6.99–12.88 6.24–13.62 | 19.58 13.80–25.36 12.29–26.87 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.45–3.38 | 1.34 0.25–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 3.26 1.00–5.51 0.41–6.10 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.12–2.76 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.70–6.17 | 28% 22% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 4.01 2.46–5.57 2.03–5.99 | 7.01 4.02–10.01 3.21–10.82 | 28% 14% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.