UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Halil Umut Meler
Goals
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.871.103.98safe1.91–3.830.25–1.962.15–5.80safer1.65–4.090.00–2.211.65–6.31actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction7.713.1510.87safe5.86–9.571.45–4.867.30–14.43safer5.36–10.070.98–5.336.34–15.40actual2.002.004.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction20.038.7228.75safe16.33–23.745.34–12.1021.67–35.83safer15.30–24.774.41–13.0319.71–37.80actual10.008.0018.00
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction13.825.9819.80safe11.31–16.343.67–8.2814.98–24.62safer10.44–17.202.88–9.0713.32–26.28actual3.006.009.00
Blocked shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction5.112.137.23safe3.52–6.690.71–3.544.23–10.23safer2.99–7.220.23–4.033.21–11.25actual4.004.008.00
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.973.009.96safe4.76–9.171.02–4.975.78–14.15safer4.17–9.770.48–5.514.65–15.28actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.2241.43safe51.90–64.5435.11–47.75safer50.30–66.1333.52–49.35actual54.0046.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction539371911safe474–605307–436781–1040safer456–622289–453745–1076actual439389828
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction86.6283.23safe82.40–90.8478.72–87.74safer81.10–92.1477.39–89.07
Fouls
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction9.4710.7720.24safe6.62–12.337.82–13.7114.44–26.05safer5.73–13.226.91–14.6312.64–27.85actual14.0015.0029.00
Offsides
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.362.91safe0.34–2.760.20–2.520.54–5.28safer0.00–3.100.00–2.850.00–5.96actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.422.113.53safe0.36–2.480.99–3.231.35–5.70safer0.09–2.750.70–3.520.79–6.26actual3.006.009.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.110.15safe0.00–0.190.00–0.300.00–0.50safer0.00–0.340.00–0.450.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
80%
homeawaytotalprediction2.164.887.03safe0.74–3.573.32–6.434.07–10.00safer0.35–3.962.89–6.863.25–10.82actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.87 1.91–3.83 1.65–4.09 | 1.00 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.00 | 3.98 2.15–5.80 1.65–6.31 | 2.00 | 74% 15% |
| Shots on target | 7.71 5.86–9.57 5.36–10.07 | 2.00 | 3.15 1.45–4.86 0.98–5.33 | 2.00 | 10.87 7.30–14.43 6.34–15.40 | 4.00 | 90% |
| Total shots | 20.03 16.33–23.74 15.30–24.77 | 10.00 | 8.72 5.34–12.10 4.41–13.03 | 8.00 | 28.75 21.67–35.83 19.71–37.80 | 18.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 13.82 11.31–16.34 10.44–17.20 | 3.00 | 5.98 3.67–8.28 2.88–9.07 | 6.00 | 19.80 14.98–24.62 13.32–26.28 | 9.00 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 5.11 3.52–6.69 2.99–7.22 | 4.00 | 2.13 0.71–3.54 0.23–4.03 | 4.00 | 7.23 4.23–10.23 3.21–11.25 | 8.00 | 83% |
| Corners | 6.97 4.76–9.17 4.17–9.77 | 3.00 | 3.00 1.02–4.97 0.48–5.51 | 3.00 | 9.96 5.78–14.15 4.65–15.28 | 6.00 | 87% |
| Possession % | 58.22 51.90–64.54 50.30–66.13 | 54.00 | 41.43 35.11–47.75 33.52–49.35 | 46.00 | — | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 539 474–605 456–622 | 439 | 371 307–436 289–453 | 389 | 911 781–1040 745–1076 | 828 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.62 82.40–90.84 81.10–92.14 | — | 83.23 78.72–87.74 77.39–89.07 | — | — | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 9.47 6.62–12.33 5.73–13.22 | 14.00 | 10.77 7.82–13.71 6.91–14.63 | 15.00 | 20.24 14.44–26.05 12.64–27.85 | 29.00 | 34% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.34–2.76 0.00–3.10 | 1.00 | 1.36 0.20–2.52 0.00–2.85 | 0.00 | 2.91 0.54–5.28 0.00–5.96 | 1.00 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 0.36–2.48 0.09–2.75 | 3.00 | 2.11 0.99–3.23 0.70–3.52 | 6.00 | 3.53 1.35–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 9.00 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.16 0.74–3.57 0.35–3.96 | 1.00 | 4.88 3.32–6.43 2.89–6.86 | 1.00 | 7.03 4.07–10.00 3.25–10.82 | 2.00 | 80% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.