UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.723.75safe1.06–3.000.87–2.581.93–5.58safer0.81–3.250.64–2.811.45–6.06
Shots on target
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction6.305.0111.32safe4.44–8.173.27–6.767.71–14.92safer3.95–8.652.81–7.226.76–15.88
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction18.1013.0431.14safe14.18–22.039.48–16.6123.66–38.63safer13.08–23.128.52–17.5721.61–40.68
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.529.2920.81safe8.58–14.476.61–11.9715.19–26.44safer7.75–15.305.87–12.7113.62–28.00
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.328.45safe3.24–7.011.67–4.984.91–11.98safer2.70–7.551.18–5.473.88–13.02
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.874.6810.56safe3.66–8.092.68–6.686.34–14.77safer3.08–8.662.15–7.225.24–15.88
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction52.8947.62safe46.10–59.6840.83–54.40safer44.43–61.3539.16–56.07
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction523460983safe456–590394–526849–1117safer438–608376–544814–1152
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction73.7274.41safe69.69–77.7570.08–78.73safer68.40–79.0468.77–80.04
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3910.5620.95safe7.56–13.237.61–13.5015.17–26.73safer6.80–13.996.86–14.2513.66–28.24
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.372.97safe0.44–2.760.28–2.470.72–5.22safer0.14–3.060.00–2.750.13–5.81
Yellow cards
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.983.37safe0.34–2.440.85–3.111.19–5.55safer0.07–2.700.56–3.400.63–6.11
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.997.29safe1.87–4.742.43–5.544.30–10.28safer1.48–5.132.00–5.973.49–11.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.06–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 1.72 0.87–2.58 0.64–2.81 | 3.75 1.93–5.58 1.45–6.06 | 45% 21% 33% |
| Shots on target | 6.30 4.44–8.17 3.95–8.65 | 5.01 3.27–6.76 2.81–7.22 | 11.32 7.71–14.92 6.76–15.88 | 59% 30% |
| Total shots | 18.10 14.18–22.03 13.08–23.12 | 13.04 9.48–16.61 8.52–17.57 | 31.14 23.66–38.63 21.61–40.68 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 11.52 8.58–14.47 7.75–15.30 | 9.29 6.61–11.97 5.87–12.71 | 20.81 15.19–26.44 13.62–28.00 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 5.12 3.24–7.01 2.70–7.55 | 3.32 1.67–4.98 1.18–5.47 | 8.45 4.91–11.98 3.88–13.02 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.66–8.09 3.08–8.66 | 4.68 2.68–6.68 2.15–7.22 | 10.56 6.34–14.77 5.24–15.88 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.89 46.10–59.68 44.43–61.35 | 47.62 40.83–54.40 39.16–56.07 | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 523 456–590 438–608 | 460 394–526 376–544 | 983 849–1117 814–1152 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.72 69.69–77.75 68.40–79.04 | 74.41 70.08–78.73 68.77–80.04 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 10.39 7.56–13.23 6.80–13.99 | 10.56 7.61–13.50 6.86–14.25 | 20.95 15.17–26.73 13.66–28.24 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 1.37 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.75 | 2.97 0.72–5.22 0.13–5.81 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 0.34–2.44 0.07–2.70 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.37 1.19–5.55 0.63–6.11 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.31 1.87–4.74 1.48–5.13 | 3.99 2.43–5.54 2.00–5.97 | 7.29 4.30–10.28 3.49–11.10 | 33% 15% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+