UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
18%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.302.563.86safe0.33–2.271.70–3.412.03–5.68safer0.08–2.521.47–3.641.55–6.16
Shots on target
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction4.456.9611.41safe2.59–6.315.22–8.707.81–15.02safer2.10–6.804.75–9.176.85–15.97
Total shots
20%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9317.0429.97safe9.00–16.8513.48–20.6022.48–37.46safer7.91–17.9412.52–21.5620.43–39.51
Shots in box
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction8.1712.1420.31safe5.23–11.119.46–14.8214.69–25.93safer4.40–11.948.72–15.5613.12–27.50
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.634.307.93safe1.75–5.512.65–5.954.39–11.46safer1.20–6.062.15–6.443.36–12.50
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.466.2710.73safe2.25–6.674.27–8.276.52–14.95safer1.67–7.253.74–8.805.41–16.05
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction39.4461.65safe32.65–46.2454.86–68.43safer30.98–47.9053.19–70.11
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction3946111005safe327–462544–677871–1139safer309–480527–695836–1174
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction71.1382.66safe67.10–75.1678.33–86.98safer65.81–76.4577.02–88.29
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8810.5721.46safe8.05–13.727.63–13.5215.67–27.24safer7.29–14.486.88–14.2714.17–28.74
Offsides
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.353.215.57safe1.19–3.522.12–4.303.31–7.82safer0.89–3.821.83–4.592.72–8.41
Yellow cards
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.703.54safe0.79–2.890.57–2.821.36–5.71safer0.53–3.160.28–3.120.80–6.27
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.032.946.97safe2.59–5.461.39–4.503.98–9.96safer2.20–5.850.96–4.923.16–10.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 2.56 1.70–3.41 1.47–3.64 | 3.86 2.03–5.68 1.55–6.16 | 18% 18% 65% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.31 2.10–6.80 | 6.96 5.22–8.70 4.75–9.17 | 11.41 7.81–15.02 6.85–15.97 | 18% 72% |
| Total shots | 12.93 9.00–16.85 7.91–17.94 | 17.04 13.48–20.60 12.52–21.56 | 29.97 22.48–37.46 20.43–39.51 | 20% 75% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.23–11.11 4.40–11.94 | 12.14 9.46–14.82 8.72–15.56 | 20.31 14.69–25.93 13.12–27.50 | 16% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.20–6.06 | 4.30 2.65–5.95 2.15–6.44 | 7.93 4.39–11.46 3.36–12.50 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 4.46 2.25–6.67 1.67–7.25 | 6.27 4.27–8.27 3.74–8.80 | 10.73 6.52–14.95 5.41–16.05 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 39.44 32.65–46.24 30.98–47.90 | 61.65 54.86–68.43 53.19–70.11 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 394 327–462 309–480 | 611 544–677 527–695 | 1005 871–1139 836–1174 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.13 67.10–75.16 65.81–76.45 | 82.66 78.33–86.98 77.02–88.29 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.05–13.72 7.29–14.48 | 10.57 7.63–13.52 6.88–14.27 | 21.46 15.67–27.24 14.17–28.74 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.35 1.19–3.52 0.89–3.82 | 3.21 2.12–4.30 1.83–4.59 | 5.57 3.31–7.82 2.72–8.41 | 28% 16% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 1.70 0.57–2.82 0.28–3.12 | 3.54 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 4.03 2.59–5.46 2.20–5.85 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.92 | 6.97 3.98–9.96 3.16–10.77 | 59% 14% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.