UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 7·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.443.42safe1.02–2.960.58–2.291.60–5.25safer0.77–3.210.35–2.521.12–5.73
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.984.4010.39safe4.12–7.852.66–6.146.78–13.99safer3.63–8.342.19–6.615.83–14.95
Total shots
76%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6212.4029.02safe12.70–20.558.83–15.9621.53–36.50safer11.61–21.647.87–16.9219.48–38.55
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction11.209.0220.22safe8.26–14.156.34–11.7014.60–25.84safer7.43–14.985.60–12.4413.03–27.41
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.772.957.72safe2.89–6.651.30–4.614.18–11.26safer2.34–7.190.81–5.103.15–12.29
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.024.4810.50safe3.81–8.232.48–6.486.29–14.72safer3.23–8.811.95–7.015.18–15.82
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.3943.95safe49.60–63.1837.16–50.73safer47.93–64.8535.49–52.40
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction537417954safe469–604351–483820–1087safer451–622333–501784–1123
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction76.8675.24safe72.83–80.8970.91–79.56safer71.54–82.1969.60–80.87
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4111.9422.35safe7.57–13.258.99–14.8816.57–28.13safer6.82–14.008.24–15.6315.06–29.64
Offsides
19%
17%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.704.14safe0.28–2.601.60–3.791.88–6.39safer0.00–2.901.31–4.081.29–6.98
Yellow cards
30%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.173.83safe0.61–2.711.04–3.291.65–6.01safer0.35–2.980.75–3.591.09–6.56
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.716.55safe1.40–4.282.16–5.273.56–9.55safer1.02–4.661.73–5.692.75–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 1.02–2.96 0.77–3.21 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 3.42 1.60–5.25 1.12–5.73 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.98 4.12–7.85 3.63–8.34 | 4.40 2.66–6.14 2.19–6.61 | 10.39 6.78–13.99 5.83–14.95 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.62 12.70–20.55 11.61–21.64 | 12.40 8.83–15.96 7.87–16.92 | 29.02 21.53–36.50 19.48–38.55 | 76% 19% |
| Shots in box | 11.20 8.26–14.15 7.43–14.98 | 9.02 6.34–11.70 5.60–12.44 | 20.22 14.60–25.84 13.03–27.41 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.77 2.89–6.65 2.34–7.19 | 2.95 1.30–4.61 0.81–5.10 | 7.72 4.18–11.26 3.15–12.29 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 6.02 3.81–8.23 3.23–8.81 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.01 | 10.50 6.29–14.72 5.18–15.82 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 56.39 49.60–63.18 47.93–64.85 | 43.95 37.16–50.73 35.49–52.40 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 537 469–604 451–622 | 417 351–483 333–501 | 954 820–1087 784–1123 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.86 72.83–80.89 71.54–82.19 | 75.24 70.91–79.56 69.60–80.87 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 10.41 7.57–13.25 6.82–14.00 | 11.94 8.99–14.88 8.24–15.63 | 22.35 16.57–28.13 15.06–29.64 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 2.70 1.60–3.79 1.31–4.08 | 4.14 1.88–6.39 1.29–6.98 | 19% 17% 64% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.35–2.98 | 2.17 1.04–3.29 0.75–3.59 | 3.83 1.65–6.01 1.09–6.56 | 30% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.28 1.02–4.66 | 3.71 2.16–5.27 1.73–5.69 | 6.55 3.56–9.55 2.75–10.36 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.