UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.363.60safe1.27–3.210.50–2.211.78–5.42safer1.02–3.460.27–2.441.30–5.90
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.524.9111.43safe4.66–8.383.17–6.657.83–15.04safer4.17–8.872.70–7.126.87–15.99
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0312.1529.18safe13.10–20.958.59–15.7121.69–36.66safer12.01–22.047.63–16.6719.64–38.72
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction12.028.4720.49safe9.07–14.965.79–11.1514.86–26.11safer8.24–15.795.05–11.8913.30–27.68
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.592.727.31safe2.71–6.471.06–4.373.77–10.84safer2.17–7.020.57–4.862.74–11.88
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.544.2910.84safe4.33–8.762.29–6.296.62–15.05safer3.76–9.331.76–6.825.51–16.16
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction59.2042.13safe52.41–65.9935.34–48.91safer50.74–67.6633.67–50.58
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction588410998safe520–655344–476864–1131safer502–673326–494828–1167
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction76.1470.36safe72.11–80.1766.03–74.68safer70.82–81.4664.72–75.99
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2811.7522.03safe7.44–13.128.80–14.6916.25–27.81safer6.69–13.878.06–15.4414.74–29.32
Offsides
19%
16%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.693.084.76safe0.52–2.851.98–4.172.51–7.01safer0.22–3.151.69–4.461.92–7.60
Yellow cards
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.933.33safe0.35–2.450.80–3.061.15–5.51safer0.08–2.710.51–3.350.59–6.06
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.054.177.22safe1.61–4.482.61–5.734.22–10.21safer1.22–4.872.19–6.153.41–11.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.24 1.27–3.21 1.02–3.46 | 1.36 0.50–2.21 0.27–2.44 | 3.60 1.78–5.42 1.30–5.90 | 57% 20% 23% |
| Shots on target | 6.52 4.66–8.38 4.17–8.87 | 4.91 3.17–6.65 2.70–7.12 | 11.43 7.83–15.04 6.87–15.99 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 17.03 13.10–20.95 12.01–22.04 | 12.15 8.59–15.71 7.63–16.67 | 29.18 21.69–36.66 19.64–38.72 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 12.02 9.07–14.96 8.24–15.79 | 8.47 5.79–11.15 5.05–11.89 | 20.49 14.86–26.11 13.30–27.68 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 2.71–6.47 2.17–7.02 | 2.72 1.06–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 7.31 3.77–10.84 2.74–11.88 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.54 4.33–8.76 3.76–9.33 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.82 | 10.84 6.62–15.05 5.51–16.16 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 59.20 52.41–65.99 50.74–67.66 | 42.13 35.34–48.91 33.67–50.58 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 588 520–655 502–673 | 410 344–476 326–494 | 998 864–1131 828–1167 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.14 72.11–80.17 70.82–81.46 | 70.36 66.03–74.68 64.72–75.99 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 10.28 7.44–13.12 6.69–13.87 | 11.75 8.80–14.69 8.06–15.44 | 22.03 16.25–27.81 14.74–29.32 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.52–2.85 0.22–3.15 | 3.08 1.98–4.17 1.69–4.46 | 4.76 2.51–7.01 1.92–7.60 | 19% 16% 66% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.45 0.08–2.71 | 1.93 0.80–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.59–6.06 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 4.17 2.61–5.73 2.19–6.15 | 7.22 4.22–10.21 3.41–11.02 | 27% 14% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.