UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michael Oliver · England
Goals
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.213.11safe0.94–2.860.35–2.071.29–4.93safer0.68–3.120.10–2.320.78–5.44actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.313.8610.17safe4.45–8.162.15–5.576.60–13.73safer3.95–8.661.69–6.045.64–14.70actual8.007.0015.00
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0211.4627.47safe12.31–19.728.08–14.8320.39–34.55safer11.28–20.757.15–15.7718.43–36.52actual16.0021.0037.00
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.777.6118.38safe8.26–13.295.31–9.9113.56–23.20safer7.39–14.154.51–10.7111.90–24.86actual14.0015.0029.00
Blocked shots
60%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.127.41safe2.71–5.881.70–4.534.41–10.41safer2.17–6.411.22–5.023.39–11.43actual3.005.008.00
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.064.3210.39safe3.86–8.272.35–6.306.20–14.57safer3.26–8.861.81–6.845.07–15.70actual4.0011.0015.00
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction47.2453.62safe40.92–53.5547.30–59.94safer39.32–55.1545.70–61.53actual36.0064.00
Passes
37%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction480517997safe415–545453–582867–1127safer397–563435–599832–1162actual352621973
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction86.9187.59safe82.70–91.1383.08–92.09safer81.39–92.4381.75–93.42actual87.0094.00
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.3212.0721.39safe6.46–12.179.12–15.0215.58–27.19safer5.57–13.068.21–15.9313.78–28.99actual12.0010.0022.00
Offsides
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction3.111.184.29safe1.90–4.320.02–2.341.92–6.66safer1.56–4.660.00–2.671.24–7.34actual2.004.006.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.504.18safe0.62–2.731.38–3.622.00–6.35safer0.35–3.001.09–3.911.44–6.91actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.290.00–0.48safer0.00–0.350.00–0.430.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.886.96safe1.67–4.502.32–5.433.99–9.93safer1.28–4.891.89–5.863.17–10.75actual7.006.0013.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.94–2.86 0.68–3.12 | 2.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.32 | 1.00 | 3.11 1.29–4.93 0.78–5.44 | 3.00 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Shots on target | 6.31 4.45–8.16 3.95–8.66 | 8.00 | 3.86 2.15–5.57 1.69–6.04 | 7.00 | 10.17 6.60–13.73 5.64–14.70 | 15.00 | 73% 18% |
| Total shots | 16.02 12.31–19.72 11.28–20.75 | 16.00 | 11.46 8.08–14.83 7.15–15.77 | 21.00 | 27.47 20.39–34.55 18.43–36.52 | 37.00 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.77 8.26–13.29 7.39–14.15 | 14.00 | 7.61 5.31–9.91 4.51–10.71 | 15.00 | 18.38 13.56–23.20 11.90–24.86 | 29.00 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.71–5.88 2.17–6.41 | 3.00 | 3.12 1.70–4.53 1.22–5.02 | 5.00 | 7.41 4.41–10.41 3.39–11.43 | 8.00 | 60% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.86–8.27 3.26–8.86 | 4.00 | 4.32 2.35–6.30 1.81–6.84 | 11.00 | 10.39 6.20–14.57 5.07–15.70 | 15.00 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 47.24 40.92–53.55 39.32–55.15 | 36.00 | 53.62 47.30–59.94 45.70–61.53 | 64.00 | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 480 415–545 397–563 | 352 | 517 453–582 435–599 | 621 | 997 867–1127 832–1162 | 973 | 37% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.91 82.70–91.13 81.39–92.43 | 87.00 | 87.59 83.08–92.09 81.75–93.42 | 94.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 9.32 6.46–12.17 5.57–13.06 | 12.00 | 12.07 9.12–15.02 8.21–15.93 | 10.00 | 21.39 15.58–27.19 13.78–28.99 | 22.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 3.11 1.90–4.32 1.56–4.66 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.02–2.34 0.00–2.67 | 4.00 | 4.29 1.92–6.66 1.24–7.34 | 6.00 | 76% 13% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.62–2.73 0.35–3.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 1.38–3.62 1.09–3.91 | 3.00 | 4.18 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 4.00 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.67–4.50 1.28–4.89 | 7.00 | 3.88 2.32–5.43 1.89–5.86 | 6.00 | 6.96 3.99–9.93 3.17–10.75 | 13.00 | 31% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.