UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.393.42safe1.06–3.000.54–2.251.60–5.25safer0.81–3.250.31–2.481.12–5.73
Shots on target
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction6.305.0411.34safe4.44–8.173.30–6.787.74–14.95safer3.95–8.662.83–7.256.78–15.90
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5413.5630.11safe12.62–20.4710.00–17.1322.62–37.59safer11.53–21.569.04–18.0820.57–39.64
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction11.759.0920.84safe8.81–14.696.41–11.7815.22–26.47safer7.98–15.525.68–12.5113.65–28.03
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.483.778.25safe2.60–6.372.12–5.424.72–11.79safer2.06–6.911.63–5.923.68–12.83
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.794.6410.44safe3.58–8.012.64–6.646.22–14.65safer3.01–8.582.11–7.185.12–15.76
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction49.0152.19safe42.22–55.8045.40–58.97safer40.55–57.4743.73–60.65
Passes
44%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction476494970safe409–543427–560836–1104safer391–561410–578801–1139
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction70.2876.19safe66.25–74.3171.86–80.51safer64.95–75.6070.55–81.82
Fouls
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5913.1922.78safe6.76–12.4310.24–16.1317.00–28.56safer6.00–13.199.49–16.8815.50–30.07
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.633.22safe0.44–2.760.53–2.720.97–5.48safer0.13–3.060.24–3.010.38–6.07
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.233.98safe0.70–2.801.10–3.361.80–6.16safer0.44–3.070.81–3.651.25–6.72
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
37%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.594.017.61safe2.16–5.032.46–5.574.62–10.60safer1.77–5.422.03–5.993.80–11.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 1.06–3.00 0.81–3.25 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 3.42 1.60–5.25 1.12–5.73 | 52% 21% 26% |
| Shots on target | 6.30 4.44–8.17 3.95–8.66 | 5.04 3.30–6.78 2.83–7.25 | 11.34 7.74–14.95 6.78–15.90 | 59% 30% |
| Total shots | 16.54 12.62–20.47 11.53–21.56 | 13.56 10.00–17.13 9.04–18.08 | 30.11 22.62–37.59 20.57–39.64 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 11.75 8.81–14.69 7.98–15.52 | 9.09 6.41–11.78 5.68–12.51 | 20.84 15.22–26.47 13.65–28.03 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.48 2.60–6.37 2.06–6.91 | 3.77 2.12–5.42 1.63–5.92 | 8.25 4.72–11.79 3.68–12.83 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.79 3.58–8.01 3.01–8.58 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.11–7.18 | 10.44 6.22–14.65 5.12–15.76 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 49.01 42.22–55.80 40.55–57.47 | 52.19 45.40–58.97 43.73–60.65 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 476 409–543 391–561 | 494 427–560 410–578 | 970 836–1104 801–1139 | 44% 56% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.28 66.25–74.31 64.95–75.60 | 76.19 71.86–80.51 70.55–81.82 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 9.59 6.76–12.43 6.00–13.19 | 13.19 10.24–16.13 9.49–16.88 | 22.78 17.00–28.56 15.50–30.07 | 19% 74% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.13–3.06 | 1.63 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.01 | 3.22 0.97–5.48 0.38–6.07 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.59 2.16–5.03 1.77–5.42 | 4.01 2.46–5.57 2.03–5.99 | 7.61 4.62–10.60 3.80–11.41 | 37% 15% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+