UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
19%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.371.253.62safe1.41–3.340.39–2.101.80–5.44safer1.15–3.590.16–2.331.32–5.92
Shots on target
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction7.094.6211.71safe5.23–8.952.87–6.368.10–15.31safer4.74–9.442.41–6.827.15–16.27
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction18.1612.7630.92safe14.23–22.089.19–16.3223.43–38.40safer13.14–23.178.24–17.2821.38–40.45
Shots in box
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction12.518.6821.20safe9.57–15.466.00–11.3715.58–26.82safer8.74–16.285.27–12.1014.01–28.39
Blocked shots
61%
13%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.267.80safe2.66–6.421.60–4.914.26–11.33safer2.11–6.961.11–5.403.22–12.37
Corners
71%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.814.4911.30safe4.60–9.022.49–6.497.09–15.51safer4.02–9.601.96–7.025.98–16.62
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction52.1648.40safe45.37–58.9541.62–55.19safer43.70–60.6239.94–56.86
Passes
63%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction515474988safe447–582407–540854–1122safer429–600390–558819–1158
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction73.0875.32safe69.05–77.1171.00–79.65safer67.76–78.4069.69–80.96
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3512.1222.47safe7.52–13.199.17–15.0616.69–28.25safer6.76–13.958.43–15.8115.18–29.76
Offsides
72%
14%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.281.504.78safe2.12–4.440.40–2.592.52–7.03safer1.82–4.740.12–2.881.93–7.62
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.153.82safe0.62–2.721.02–3.271.64–6.00safer0.36–2.990.73–3.571.08–6.55
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.284.778.05safe1.84–4.713.21–6.325.05–11.04safer1.45–5.102.79–6.754.24–11.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.37 1.41–3.34 1.15–3.59 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 3.62 1.80–5.44 1.32–5.92 | 62% 19% 19% |
| Shots on target | 7.09 5.23–8.95 4.74–9.44 | 4.62 2.87–6.36 2.41–6.82 | 11.71 8.10–15.31 7.15–16.27 | 72% 19% |
| Total shots | 18.16 14.23–22.08 13.14–23.17 | 12.76 9.19–16.32 8.24–17.28 | 30.92 23.43–38.40 21.38–40.45 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 12.51 9.57–15.46 8.74–16.28 | 8.68 6.00–11.37 5.27–12.10 | 21.20 15.58–26.82 14.01–28.39 | 77% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.66–6.42 2.11–6.96 | 3.26 1.60–4.91 1.11–5.40 | 7.80 4.26–11.33 3.22–12.37 | 61% 13% 26% |
| Corners | 6.81 4.60–9.02 4.02–9.60 | 4.49 2.49–6.49 1.96–7.02 | 11.30 7.09–15.51 5.98–16.62 | 71% 20% |
| Possession % | 52.16 45.37–58.95 43.70–60.62 | 48.40 41.62–55.19 39.94–56.86 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 515 447–582 429–600 | 474 407–540 390–558 | 988 854–1122 819–1158 | 63% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.08 69.05–77.11 67.76–78.40 | 75.32 71.00–79.65 69.69–80.96 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 10.35 7.52–13.19 6.76–13.95 | 12.12 9.17–15.06 8.43–15.81 | 22.47 16.69–28.25 15.18–29.76 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 3.28 2.12–4.44 1.82–4.74 | 1.50 0.40–2.59 0.12–2.88 | 4.78 2.52–7.03 1.93–7.62 | 72% 14% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.36–2.99 | 2.15 1.02–3.27 0.73–3.57 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.28 1.84–4.71 1.45–5.10 | 4.77 3.21–6.32 2.79–6.75 | 8.05 5.05–11.04 4.24–11.85 | 24% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.