UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 3·Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
18%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction0.982.383.36safe0.01–1.951.53–3.241.54–5.19safer0.00–2.201.30–3.471.06–5.67
Shots on target
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.826.3710.19safe1.96–5.684.63–8.116.59–13.80safer1.47–6.174.16–8.585.63–14.75
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3216.4327.75safe7.40–15.2512.86–19.9920.26–35.24safer6.31–16.3411.90–20.9518.21–37.29
Shots in box
13%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8911.0317.92safe3.95–9.838.35–13.7112.30–23.54safer3.12–10.667.61–14.4510.73–25.11
Blocked shots
21%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.934.597.52safe1.05–4.812.94–6.243.99–11.06safer0.51–5.362.45–6.742.95–12.09
Corners
29%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.405.6710.07safe2.19–6.613.67–7.675.86–14.29safer1.61–7.193.14–8.214.75–15.39
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction39.7558.90safe32.96–46.5452.12–65.69safer31.29–48.2150.45–67.36
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction382555937safe315–449488–621803–1070safer297–467471–639767–1106
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction66.8376.73safe62.80–70.8672.41–81.06safer61.51–72.1571.10–82.37
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2411.6921.92safe7.40–13.078.74–14.6316.14–27.71safer6.64–13.838.00–15.3814.64–29.21
Offsides
48%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.743.89safe0.99–3.310.64–2.831.64–6.14safer0.69–3.610.35–3.121.05–6.73
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.893.53safe0.59–2.690.76–3.021.35–5.70safer0.32–2.960.47–3.310.79–6.26
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
60%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.832.696.53safe2.40–5.271.14–4.253.54–9.52safer2.01–5.660.71–4.682.72–10.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.38 1.53–3.24 1.30–3.47 | 3.36 1.54–5.19 1.06–5.67 | 14% 18% 68% |
| Shots on target | 3.82 1.96–5.68 1.47–6.17 | 6.37 4.63–8.11 4.16–8.58 | 10.19 6.59–13.80 5.63–14.75 | 17% 74% |
| Total shots | 11.32 7.40–15.25 6.31–16.34 | 16.43 12.86–19.99 11.90–20.95 | 27.75 20.26–35.24 18.21–37.29 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 6.89 3.95–9.83 3.12–10.66 | 11.03 8.35–13.71 7.61–14.45 | 17.92 12.30–23.54 10.73–25.11 | 13% 81% |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 1.05–4.81 0.51–5.36 | 4.59 2.94–6.24 2.45–6.74 | 7.52 3.99–11.06 2.95–12.09 | 21% 66% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.61 1.61–7.19 | 5.67 3.67–7.67 3.14–8.21 | 10.07 5.86–14.29 4.75–15.39 | 29% 60% |
| Possession % | 39.75 32.96–46.54 31.29–48.21 | 58.90 52.12–65.69 50.45–67.36 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 382 315–449 297–467 | 555 488–621 471–639 | 937 803–1070 767–1106 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.83 62.80–70.86 61.51–72.15 | 76.73 72.41–81.06 71.10–82.37 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.24 7.40–13.07 6.64–13.83 | 11.69 8.74–14.63 8.00–15.38 | 21.92 16.14–27.71 14.64–29.21 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 2.15 0.99–3.31 0.69–3.61 | 1.74 0.64–2.83 0.35–3.12 | 3.89 1.64–6.14 1.05–6.73 | 48% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.96 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.53 1.35–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.83 2.40–5.27 2.01–5.66 | 2.69 1.14–4.25 0.71–4.68 | 6.53 3.54–9.52 2.72–10.33 | 60% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.