UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 2·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 2·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.232.84safe0.64–2.580.37–2.081.02–4.66safer0.39–2.830.14–2.310.54–5.14
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.554.069.61safe3.69–7.412.32–5.816.01–13.22safer3.20–7.901.85–6.275.05–14.18
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction18.2312.4130.65safe14.31–22.168.85–15.9823.16–38.13safer13.22–23.257.89–16.9421.11–40.18
Shots in box
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction10.907.4318.33safe7.96–13.844.75–10.1112.70–23.95safer7.13–14.674.01–10.8511.14–25.52
Blocked shots
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.037.59safe2.68–6.441.38–4.684.05–11.12safer2.13–6.980.88–5.173.02–12.16
Corners
58%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.7210.57safe3.64–8.062.72–6.726.35–14.78safer3.06–8.642.18–7.255.25–15.89
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.3845.02safe47.59–61.1738.23–51.80safer45.92–62.8436.56–53.48
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction455358813safe388–522291–424679–947safer370–540274–442644–982
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction70.3468.31safe66.31–74.3763.98–72.63safer65.02–75.6662.67–73.94
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2213.4225.63safe9.38–15.0610.47–16.3619.85–31.42safer8.63–15.819.72–17.1118.35–32.92
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.603.10safe0.35–2.670.50–2.690.85–5.36safer0.04–2.970.22–2.980.26–5.95
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.822.304.12safe0.77–2.871.17–3.431.94–6.30safer0.50–3.130.88–3.721.38–6.86
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.736.59safe1.42–4.292.17–5.293.59–9.58safer1.03–4.681.75–5.712.78–10.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.58 0.39–2.83 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.84 1.02–4.66 0.54–5.14 | 46% 25% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.55 3.69–7.41 3.20–7.90 | 4.06 2.32–5.81 1.85–6.27 | 9.61 6.01–13.22 5.05–14.18 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 18.23 14.31–22.16 13.22–23.25 | 12.41 8.85–15.98 7.89–16.94 | 30.65 23.16–38.13 21.11–40.18 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 10.90 7.96–13.84 7.13–14.67 | 7.43 4.75–10.11 4.01–10.85 | 18.33 12.70–23.95 11.14–25.52 | 76% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.56 2.68–6.44 2.13–6.98 | 3.03 1.38–4.68 0.88–5.17 | 7.59 4.05–11.12 3.02–12.16 | 64% 23% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.06 3.06–8.64 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.18–7.25 | 10.57 6.35–14.78 5.25–15.89 | 58% 31% |
| Possession % | 54.38 47.59–61.17 45.92–62.84 | 45.02 38.23–51.80 36.56–53.48 | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 455 388–522 370–540 | 358 291–424 274–442 | 813 679–947 644–982 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.34 66.31–74.37 65.02–75.66 | 68.31 63.98–72.63 62.67–73.94 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 12.22 9.38–15.06 8.63–15.81 | 13.42 10.47–16.36 9.72–17.11 | 25.63 19.85–31.42 18.35–32.92 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.04–2.97 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.10 0.85–5.36 0.26–5.95 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.87 0.50–3.13 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.12 1.94–6.30 1.38–6.86 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.73 2.17–5.29 1.75–5.71 | 6.59 3.59–9.58 2.78–10.39 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.