UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
24%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.712.75safe0.07–2.000.86–2.570.93–4.57safer0.00–2.260.63–2.800.45–5.05
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.545.218.75safe1.67–5.403.47–6.955.14–12.35safer1.18–5.893.00–7.424.18–13.31
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0913.6124.70safe7.16–15.0110.05–17.1717.21–32.18safer6.07–16.109.09–18.1315.16–34.23
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.828.8215.64safe3.87–9.766.14–11.5010.01–21.26safer3.05–10.595.40–12.248.45–22.83
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.204.067.26safe1.32–5.082.41–5.713.72–10.79safer0.77–5.631.91–6.202.69–11.83
Corners
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.024.758.76safe1.80–6.232.75–6.754.55–12.98safer1.23–6.802.21–7.283.44–14.08
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction43.8356.05safe37.04–50.6249.26–62.83safer35.37–52.2947.59–64.50
Passes
16%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction406523929safe339–474457–589796–1063safer321–492439–607760–1099
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction73.8281.19safe69.80–77.8576.86–85.51safer68.50–79.1575.55–86.82
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1112.7524.87safe9.28–14.959.81–15.7019.08–30.65safer8.52–15.719.06–16.4417.58–32.15
Offsides
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.612.99safe0.22–2.540.51–2.700.73–5.24safer0.00–2.840.22–2.990.14–5.83
Yellow cards
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.692.535.22safe1.64–3.741.40–3.663.04–7.40safer1.37–4.001.11–3.952.49–7.96
Red cards
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.100.27safe0.00–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.61safer0.00–0.470.00–0.420.00–0.90
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.575.94safe1.94–4.811.01–4.122.95–8.93safer1.55–5.200.59–4.552.14–9.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.00 0.00–2.26 | 1.71 0.86–2.57 0.63–2.80 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.45–5.05 | 23% 24% 53% |
| Shots on target | 3.54 1.67–5.40 1.18–5.89 | 5.21 3.47–6.95 3.00–7.42 | 8.75 5.14–12.35 4.18–13.31 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 11.09 7.16–15.01 6.07–16.10 | 13.61 10.05–17.17 9.09–18.13 | 24.70 17.21–32.18 15.16–34.23 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 6.82 3.87–9.76 3.05–10.59 | 8.82 6.14–11.50 5.40–12.24 | 15.64 10.01–21.26 8.45–22.83 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.32–5.08 0.77–5.63 | 4.06 2.41–5.71 1.91–6.20 | 7.26 3.72–10.79 2.69–11.83 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 4.02 1.80–6.23 1.23–6.80 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.21–7.28 | 8.76 4.55–12.98 3.44–14.08 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Possession % | 43.83 37.04–50.62 35.37–52.29 | 56.05 49.26–62.83 47.59–64.50 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 406 339–474 321–492 | 523 457–589 439–607 | 929 796–1063 760–1099 | 16% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.82 69.80–77.85 68.50–79.15 | 81.19 76.86–85.51 75.55–86.82 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 12.11 9.28–14.95 8.52–15.71 | 12.75 9.81–15.70 9.06–16.44 | 24.87 19.08–30.65 17.58–32.15 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.61 0.51–2.70 0.22–2.99 | 2.99 0.73–5.24 0.14–5.83 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.69 1.64–3.74 1.37–4.00 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 5.22 3.04–7.40 2.49–7.96 | 44% 18% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 14% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.94–4.81 1.55–5.20 | 2.57 1.01–4.12 0.59–4.55 | 5.94 2.95–8.93 2.14–9.74 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+