UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.683.02safe0.37–2.300.83–2.541.20–4.84safer0.12–2.560.60–2.770.72–5.32
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.638.78safe2.28–6.002.89–6.385.17–12.38safer1.79–6.492.43–6.844.21–13.34
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9412.5725.51safe9.02–16.869.01–16.1318.02–33.00safer7.92–17.968.05–17.0915.97–35.05
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.028.4016.42safe5.08–10.965.72–11.0810.80–22.05safer4.25–11.794.98–11.829.23–23.61
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.907.69safe1.91–5.682.25–5.554.16–11.23safer1.37–6.221.75–6.043.12–12.26
Corners
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.934.679.60safe2.71–7.142.67–6.675.39–13.81safer2.14–7.722.14–7.204.28–14.92
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction47.2253.16safe40.43–54.0146.37–59.94safer38.76–55.6844.70–61.61
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction431465896safe364–498398–531762–1030safer346–517381–549727–1065
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction74.2879.47safe70.25–78.3075.14–83.79safer68.95–79.6073.84–85.10
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.5124.59safe9.24–14.919.57–15.4618.80–30.37safer8.48–15.678.82–16.2017.30–31.87
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.503.08safe0.42–2.740.41–2.590.83–5.33safer0.12–3.040.12–2.880.24–5.92
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.504.61safe1.07–3.161.37–3.632.43–6.79safer0.80–3.431.08–3.921.88–7.35
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
43%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.775.66safe1.46–4.331.22–4.332.67–8.66safer1.07–4.720.79–4.751.86–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.12–2.56 | 1.68 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.77 | 3.02 1.20–4.84 0.72–5.32 | 31% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.00 1.79–6.49 | 4.63 2.89–6.38 2.43–6.84 | 8.78 5.17–12.38 4.21–13.34 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.94 9.02–16.86 7.92–17.96 | 12.57 9.01–16.13 8.05–17.09 | 25.51 18.02–33.00 15.97–35.05 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.02 5.08–10.96 4.25–11.79 | 8.40 5.72–11.08 4.98–11.82 | 16.42 10.80–22.05 9.23–23.61 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.90 2.25–5.55 1.75–6.04 | 7.69 4.16–11.23 3.12–12.26 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.71–7.14 2.14–7.72 | 4.67 2.67–6.67 2.14–7.20 | 9.60 5.39–13.81 4.28–14.92 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 47.22 40.43–54.01 38.76–55.68 | 53.16 46.37–59.94 44.70–61.61 | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 431 364–498 346–517 | 465 398–531 381–549 | 896 762–1030 727–1065 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.28 70.25–78.30 68.95–79.60 | 79.47 75.14–83.79 73.84–85.10 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.24–14.91 8.48–15.67 | 12.51 9.57–15.46 8.82–16.20 | 24.59 18.80–30.37 17.30–31.87 | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.50 0.41–2.59 0.12–2.88 | 3.08 0.83–5.33 0.24–5.92 | 40% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.07–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.61 2.43–6.79 1.88–7.35 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.46–4.33 1.07–4.72 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 5.66 2.67–8.66 1.86–9.47 | 43% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.