UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction0.882.343.22safe0.00–1.851.49–3.201.40–5.05safer0.00–2.101.26–3.430.92–5.53
Shots on target
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.206.069.26safe1.34–5.074.32–7.805.66–12.87safer0.85–5.553.85–8.274.70–13.82
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6316.7827.42safe6.71–14.5613.22–20.3519.93–34.91safer5.62–15.6512.26–21.3117.88–36.96
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction5.7411.3117.05safe2.80–8.698.63–13.9911.43–22.67safer1.97–9.527.89–14.739.86–24.24
Blocked shots
20%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.854.657.50safe0.96–4.733.00–6.313.96–11.03safer0.42–5.272.51–6.802.93–12.07
Corners
17%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.736.199.91safe1.51–5.944.19–8.195.70–14.13safer0.94–6.513.65–8.724.59–15.23
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction37.3862.52safe30.59–44.1755.74–69.31safer28.92–45.8454.07–70.98
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction314527841safe247–381460–593707–974safer229–399443–611671–1010
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction63.7677.67safe59.73–67.7973.34–81.99safer58.44–69.0872.03–83.30
Fouls
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2910.7425.04safe11.46–17.137.80–13.6919.25–30.82safer10.70–17.897.05–14.4417.75–32.32
Offsides
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.633.07safe0.29–2.610.53–2.720.82–5.33safer0.00–2.910.24–3.010.23–5.92
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.773.95safe1.13–3.230.64–2.901.77–6.13safer0.87–3.500.35–3.191.21–6.68
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.416.31safe2.46–5.330.86–3.973.32–9.30safer2.07–5.720.43–4.392.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.88 0.00–1.85 0.00–2.10 | 2.34 1.49–3.20 1.26–3.43 | 3.22 1.40–5.05 0.92–5.53 | 18% 70% |
| Shots on target | 3.20 1.34–5.07 0.85–5.55 | 6.06 4.32–7.80 3.85–8.27 | 9.26 5.66–12.87 4.70–13.82 | 13% 78% |
| Total shots | 10.63 6.71–14.56 5.62–15.65 | 16.78 13.22–20.35 12.26–21.31 | 27.42 19.93–34.91 17.88–36.96 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 5.74 2.80–8.69 1.97–9.52 | 11.31 8.63–13.99 7.89–14.73 | 17.05 11.43–22.67 9.86–24.24 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 2.85 0.96–4.73 0.42–5.27 | 4.65 3.00–6.31 2.51–6.80 | 7.50 3.96–11.03 2.93–12.07 | 20% 68% |
| Corners | 3.73 1.51–5.94 0.94–6.51 | 6.19 4.19–8.19 3.65–8.72 | 9.91 5.70–14.13 4.59–15.23 | 17% 73% |
| Possession % | 37.38 30.59–44.17 28.92–45.84 | 62.52 55.74–69.31 54.07–70.98 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 314 247–381 229–399 | 527 460–593 443–611 | 841 707–974 671–1010 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.76 59.73–67.79 58.44–69.08 | 77.67 73.34–81.99 72.03–83.30 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 14.29 11.46–17.13 10.70–17.89 | 10.74 7.80–13.69 7.05–14.44 | 25.04 19.25–30.82 17.75–32.32 | 73% 21% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 1.63 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.01 | 3.07 0.82–5.33 0.23–5.92 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.13–3.23 0.87–3.50 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.95 1.77–6.13 1.21–6.68 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.90 2.46–5.33 2.07–5.72 | 2.41 0.86–3.97 0.43–4.39 | 6.31 3.32–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 65% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.