UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.732.94safe0.24–2.180.87–2.581.11–4.76safer0.00–2.430.65–2.810.63–5.24
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.255.279.52safe2.39–6.113.53–7.015.92–13.13safer1.90–6.603.06–7.484.96–14.08
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6415.2527.89safe8.72–16.5711.68–18.8120.40–35.38safer7.63–17.6610.73–19.7718.35–37.43
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.879.9317.79safe4.92–10.817.24–12.6112.17–23.41safer4.09–11.646.51–13.3410.60–24.98
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.164.317.47safe1.28–5.052.66–5.963.94–11.01safer0.74–5.592.17–6.462.90–12.04
Corners
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.625.6110.23safe2.41–6.833.61–7.616.01–14.44safer1.83–7.413.07–8.144.91–15.55
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction41.7158.08safe34.92–48.5051.29–64.86safer33.25–50.1749.62–66.53
Passes
13%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction351483834safe284–418416–549700–968safer266–437399–567665–1003
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction65.0473.76safe61.01–69.0769.44–78.08safer59.72–70.3668.13–79.39
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6611.6324.29safe9.83–15.508.69–14.5818.51–30.08safer9.07–16.267.94–15.3217.01–31.58
Offsides
71%
15%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.091.414.49safe1.93–4.250.31–2.502.24–6.75safer1.63–4.550.03–2.791.65–7.34
Yellow cards
44%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.733.69safe0.90–3.000.61–2.861.51–5.86safer0.64–3.270.31–3.150.95–6.42
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.462.936.39safe2.02–4.891.38–4.493.40–9.38safer1.63–5.280.95–4.922.59–10.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.73 0.87–2.58 0.65–2.81 | 2.94 1.11–4.76 0.63–5.24 | 27% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 5.27 3.53–7.01 3.06–7.48 | 9.52 5.92–13.13 4.96–14.08 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 12.64 8.72–16.57 7.63–17.66 | 15.25 11.68–18.81 10.73–19.77 | 27.89 20.40–35.38 18.35–37.43 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 7.87 4.92–10.81 4.09–11.64 | 9.93 7.24–12.61 6.51–13.34 | 17.79 12.17–23.41 10.60–24.98 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 1.28–5.05 0.74–5.59 | 4.31 2.66–5.96 2.17–6.46 | 7.47 3.94–11.01 2.90–12.04 | 27% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.41–6.83 1.83–7.41 | 5.61 3.61–7.61 3.07–8.14 | 10.23 6.01–14.44 4.91–15.55 | 32% 56% |
| Possession % | 41.71 34.92–48.50 33.25–50.17 | 58.08 51.29–64.86 49.62–66.53 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 351 284–418 266–437 | 483 416–549 399–567 | 834 700–968 665–1003 | 13% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.04 61.01–69.07 59.72–70.36 | 73.76 69.44–78.08 68.13–79.39 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 12.66 9.83–15.50 9.07–16.26 | 11.63 8.69–14.58 7.94–15.32 | 24.29 18.51–30.08 17.01–31.58 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 3.09 1.93–4.25 1.63–4.55 | 1.41 0.31–2.50 0.03–2.79 | 4.49 2.24–6.75 1.65–7.34 | 71% 15% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 1.73 0.61–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 3.69 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 44% 22% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.46 2.02–4.89 1.63–5.28 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 6.39 3.40–9.38 2.59–10.20 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+