UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vassilis Fotias
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.702.88safe0.21–2.130.84–2.561.05–4.70safer0.00–2.390.60–2.810.55–5.20actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.675.3310.00safe2.81–6.523.63–7.046.44–13.56safer2.31–7.023.16–7.515.47–14.53actual5.008.0013.00
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6315.4229.06safe9.93–17.3312.05–18.8021.97–36.14safer8.90–18.3711.12–19.7320.01–38.10actual17.0026.0043.00
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.699.4317.12safe5.17–10.217.13–11.7312.30–21.94safer4.31–11.076.33–12.5310.64–23.60actual10.0014.0024.00
Blocked shots
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.826.68safe1.28–4.452.40–5.233.68–9.68safer0.74–4.981.92–5.722.66–10.70actual7.009.0016.00
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction5.065.3610.42safe2.86–7.273.38–7.346.24–14.61safer2.26–7.862.85–7.885.11–15.74actual6.009.0015.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.7658.42safe36.44–49.0852.11–64.74safer34.85–50.6850.51–66.34actual37.0063.00
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction362470833safe297–428406–535703–963safer279–445388–552668–998actual264441705
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction72.9581.17safe68.73–77.1776.66–85.68safer67.43–78.4775.33–87.01
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7512.0524.80safe9.89–15.609.10–14.9918.99–30.60safer9.01–16.498.19–15.9117.19–32.40actual8.008.0016.00
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.231.343.56safe1.02–3.430.18–2.501.19–5.94safer0.67–3.780.00–2.830.51–6.61actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
40%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.214.40safe1.13–3.241.09–3.332.22–6.58safer0.86–3.510.80–3.621.66–7.14actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.21safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.86actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.313.037.34safe2.90–5.731.48–4.584.37–10.31safer2.51–6.111.04–5.023.55–11.13actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.21–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 2.00 | 1.70 0.84–2.56 0.60–2.81 | 3.00 | 2.88 1.05–4.70 0.55–5.20 | 5.00 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.81–6.52 2.31–7.02 | 5.00 | 5.33 3.63–7.04 3.16–7.51 | 8.00 | 10.00 6.44–13.56 5.47–14.53 | 13.00 | 36% 52% |
| Total shots | 13.63 9.93–17.33 8.90–18.37 | 17.00 | 15.42 12.05–18.80 11.12–19.73 | 26.00 | 29.06 21.97–36.14 20.01–38.10 | 43.00 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.69 5.17–10.21 4.31–11.07 | 10.00 | 9.43 7.13–11.73 6.33–12.53 | 14.00 | 17.12 12.30–21.94 10.64–23.60 | 24.00 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 2.86 1.28–4.45 0.74–4.98 | 7.00 | 3.82 2.40–5.23 1.92–5.72 | 9.00 | 6.68 3.68–9.68 2.66–10.70 | 16.00 | 28% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.86–7.27 2.26–7.86 | 6.00 | 5.36 3.38–7.34 2.85–7.88 | 9.00 | 10.42 6.24–14.61 5.11–15.74 | 15.00 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 42.76 36.44–49.08 34.85–50.68 | 37.00 | 58.42 52.11–64.74 50.51–66.34 | 63.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 362 297–428 279–445 | 264 | 470 406–535 388–552 | 441 | 833 703–963 668–998 | 705 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.95 68.73–77.17 67.43–78.47 | — | 81.17 76.66–85.68 75.33–87.01 | — | — | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.75 9.89–15.60 9.01–16.49 | 8.00 | 12.05 9.10–14.99 8.19–15.91 | 8.00 | 24.80 18.99–30.60 17.19–32.40 | 16.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.23 1.02–3.43 0.67–3.78 | 2.00 | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.83 | 0.00 | 3.56 1.19–5.94 0.51–6.61 | 2.00 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.13–3.24 0.86–3.51 | 0.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 1.00 | 4.40 2.22–6.58 1.66–7.14 | 1.00 | 40% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 1.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | 1.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 4.31 2.90–5.73 2.51–6.11 | 4.00 | 3.03 1.48–4.58 1.04–5.02 | 3.00 | 7.34 4.37–10.31 3.55–11.13 | 7.00 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.