UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
21%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction0.982.022.99safe0.01–1.951.16–2.871.17–4.82safer0.00–2.200.93–3.100.69–5.30
Shots on target
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction3.386.149.52safe1.52–5.254.39–7.885.92–13.13safer1.03–5.743.93–8.354.96–14.08
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3816.9128.29safe7.45–15.3013.35–20.4720.80–35.77safer6.36–16.3912.39–21.4318.75–37.82
Shots in box
13%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.7610.9017.65safe3.81–9.708.22–13.5812.03–23.28safer2.99–10.537.48–14.3210.46–24.84
Blocked shots
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.054.677.72safe1.17–4.933.02–6.334.19–11.26safer0.62–5.482.53–6.823.15–12.29
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.175.9010.07safe1.96–6.383.90–7.905.86–14.29safer1.38–6.963.37–8.444.75–15.39
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction38.7460.89safe31.95–45.5354.11–67.68safer30.28–47.2052.44–69.35
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction361601963safe294–429535–668829–1096safer276–447517–685793–1132
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction69.2179.34safe65.19–73.2475.02–83.66safer63.89–74.5473.71–84.97
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8011.5322.33safe7.96–13.648.58–14.4716.55–28.11safer7.21–14.407.84–15.2215.04–29.62
Offsides
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.394.70safe1.15–3.471.30–3.482.44–6.95safer0.85–3.771.01–3.771.85–7.54
Yellow cards
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.603.84safe1.19–3.290.48–2.731.66–6.02safer0.92–3.550.18–3.021.11–6.58
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
66%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.082.546.63safe2.65–5.520.99–4.103.63–9.62safer2.26–5.910.56–4.522.82–10.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.02 1.16–2.87 0.93–3.10 | 2.99 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 18% 21% 61% |
| Shots on target | 3.38 1.52–5.25 1.03–5.74 | 6.14 4.39–7.88 3.93–8.35 | 9.52 5.92–13.13 4.96–14.08 | 14% 77% |
| Total shots | 11.38 7.45–15.30 6.36–16.39 | 16.91 13.35–20.47 12.39–21.43 | 28.29 20.80–35.77 18.75–37.82 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 6.76 3.81–9.70 2.99–10.53 | 10.90 8.22–13.58 7.48–14.32 | 17.65 12.03–23.28 10.46–24.84 | 13% 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.17–4.93 0.62–5.48 | 4.67 3.02–6.33 2.53–6.82 | 7.72 4.19–11.26 3.15–12.29 | 22% 66% |
| Corners | 4.17 1.96–6.38 1.38–6.96 | 5.90 3.90–7.90 3.37–8.44 | 10.07 5.86–14.29 4.75–15.39 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 38.74 31.95–45.53 30.28–47.20 | 60.89 54.11–67.68 52.44–69.35 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 361 294–429 276–447 | 601 535–668 517–685 | 963 829–1096 793–1132 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.21 65.19–73.24 63.89–74.54 | 79.34 75.02–83.66 73.71–84.97 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.80 7.96–13.64 7.21–14.40 | 11.53 8.58–14.47 7.84–15.22 | 22.33 16.55–28.11 15.04–29.62 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.31 1.15–3.47 0.85–3.77 | 2.39 1.30–3.48 1.01–3.77 | 4.70 2.44–6.95 1.85–7.54 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.92–3.55 | 1.60 0.48–2.73 0.18–3.02 | 3.84 1.66–6.02 1.11–6.58 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 4.08 2.65–5.52 2.26–5.91 | 2.54 0.99–4.10 0.56–4.52 | 6.63 3.63–9.62 2.82–10.43 | 66% 13% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.