UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 6·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.632.74safe0.15–2.080.78–2.490.92–4.57safer0.00–2.330.55–2.710.44–5.05
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.664.698.35safe1.80–5.522.95–6.434.75–11.96safer1.31–6.012.48–6.903.79–12.91
Total shots
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0312.9523.98safe7.10–14.959.39–16.5216.50–31.47safer6.01–16.058.43–17.4814.44–33.52
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction6.619.2615.87safe3.67–9.556.58–11.9410.25–21.49safer2.84–10.385.84–12.688.68–23.06
Blocked shots
31%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.244.067.31safe1.36–5.132.41–5.713.77–10.84safer0.82–5.671.92–6.212.73–11.88
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.495.229.71safe2.27–6.703.22–7.225.49–13.92safer1.70–7.272.69–7.754.39–15.03
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction43.0957.62safe36.30–49.8850.83–64.40safer34.63–51.5549.16–66.07
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction355506861safe288–422439–572727–995safer270–440422–590692–1030
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction71.2179.69safe67.18–75.2475.37–84.02safer65.89–76.5374.06–85.33
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9112.8724.78safe9.07–14.759.92–15.8119.00–30.56safer8.32–15.509.18–16.5617.49–32.07
Offsides
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.293.70safe0.25–2.571.20–3.381.45–5.95safer0.00–2.870.91–3.670.86–6.54
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.414.80safe1.34–3.441.28–3.542.62–6.98safer1.07–3.710.99–3.832.07–7.54
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
51%
17%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.485.55safe1.63–4.500.93–4.042.56–8.54safer1.24–4.890.50–4.461.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.15–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 1.63 0.78–2.49 0.55–2.71 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 26% 25% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.80–5.52 1.31–6.01 | 4.69 2.95–6.43 2.48–6.90 | 8.35 4.75–11.96 3.79–12.91 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.03 7.10–14.95 6.01–16.05 | 12.95 9.39–16.52 8.43–17.48 | 23.98 16.50–31.47 14.44–33.52 | 31% 61% |
| Shots in box | 6.61 3.67–9.55 2.84–10.38 | 9.26 6.58–11.94 5.84–12.68 | 15.87 10.25–21.49 8.68–23.06 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.36–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 4.06 2.41–5.71 1.92–6.21 | 7.31 3.77–10.84 2.73–11.88 | 31% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 4.49 2.27–6.70 1.70–7.27 | 5.22 3.22–7.22 2.69–7.75 | 9.71 5.49–13.92 4.39–15.03 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 43.09 36.30–49.88 34.63–51.55 | 57.62 50.83–64.40 49.16–66.07 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 355 288–422 270–440 | 506 439–572 422–590 | 861 727–995 692–1030 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.21 67.18–75.24 65.89–76.53 | 79.69 75.37–84.02 74.06–85.33 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.07–14.75 8.32–15.50 | 12.87 9.92–15.81 9.18–16.56 | 24.78 19.00–30.56 17.49–32.07 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.25–2.57 0.00–2.87 | 2.29 1.20–3.38 0.91–3.67 | 3.70 1.45–5.95 0.86–6.54 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 2.39 1.34–3.44 1.07–3.71 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.80 2.62–6.98 2.07–7.54 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 2.48 0.93–4.04 0.50–4.46 | 5.55 2.56–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 51% 17% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+