UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.102.82safe0.76–2.700.24–1.951.00–4.65safer0.51–2.950.01–2.180.52–5.13
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.413.739.14safe3.55–7.281.99–5.475.54–12.75safer3.06–7.771.52–5.944.58–13.70
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4010.2825.68safe11.48–19.336.72–13.8418.20–33.17safer10.39–20.425.76–14.8016.15–35.22
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.846.5216.37safe6.90–12.793.84–9.2110.74–21.99safer6.07–13.613.11–9.949.18–23.56
Blocked shots
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.392.907.29safe2.51–6.281.25–4.553.76–10.83safer1.97–6.820.76–5.052.72–11.86
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.933.739.66safe3.72–8.151.73–5.735.45–13.88safer3.14–8.721.20–6.264.34–14.98
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.3245.73safe46.53–60.1138.95–52.52safer44.86–61.7837.28–54.19
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction514438952safe447–581372–504819–1086safer429–600354–522783–1122
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction77.9876.83safe73.95–82.0172.51–81.16safer72.66–83.3071.20–82.47
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8512.4523.30safe8.02–13.699.50–15.3917.52–29.08safer7.26–14.458.75–16.1416.01–30.59
Offsides
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.253.03safe0.62–2.940.16–2.350.78–5.28safer0.31–3.240.00–2.630.19–5.87
Yellow cards
32%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.384.34safe0.90–3.001.25–3.512.16–6.51safer0.64–3.270.96–3.801.60–7.07
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.626.30safe1.25–4.122.06–5.173.31–9.30safer0.86–4.511.64–5.602.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.82 1.00–4.65 0.52–5.13 | 52% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.41 3.55–7.28 3.06–7.77 | 3.73 1.99–5.47 1.52–5.94 | 9.14 5.54–12.75 4.58–13.70 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.40 11.48–19.33 10.39–20.42 | 10.28 6.72–13.84 5.76–14.80 | 25.68 18.20–33.17 16.15–35.22 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 9.84 6.90–12.79 6.07–13.61 | 6.52 3.84–9.21 3.11–9.94 | 16.37 10.74–21.99 9.18–23.56 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.39 2.51–6.28 1.97–6.82 | 2.90 1.25–4.55 0.76–5.05 | 7.29 3.76–10.83 2.72–11.86 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.72–8.15 3.14–8.72 | 3.73 1.73–5.73 1.20–6.26 | 9.66 5.45–13.88 4.34–14.98 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 53.32 46.53–60.11 44.86–61.78 | 45.73 38.95–52.52 37.28–54.19 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 514 447–581 429–600 | 438 372–504 354–522 | 952 819–1086 783–1122 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.98 73.95–82.01 72.66–83.30 | 76.83 72.51–81.16 71.20–82.47 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 10.85 8.02–13.69 7.26–14.45 | 12.45 9.50–15.39 8.75–16.14 | 23.30 17.52–29.08 16.01–30.59 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.31–3.24 | 1.25 0.16–2.35 0.00–2.63 | 3.03 0.78–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 2.38 1.25–3.51 0.96–3.80 | 4.34 2.16–6.51 1.60–7.07 | 32% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.62 2.06–5.17 1.64–5.60 | 6.30 3.31–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+