UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·
UEFA Champions League·League Stage - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Espen Eskas · Norway
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.142.73safe0.62–2.550.29–2.000.91–4.55safer0.36–2.810.04–2.250.40–5.06actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.583.629.21safe3.73–7.441.92–5.335.65–12.77safer3.23–7.941.45–5.804.68–13.74actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9711.2026.17safe11.27–18.677.82–14.5819.09–33.25safer10.24–19.706.89–15.5117.13–35.21actual8.0010.0018.00
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.967.2116.17safe6.44–11.484.91–9.5211.36–20.99safer5.58–12.344.12–10.319.70–22.65actual4.008.0012.00
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.572.846.40safe1.98–5.151.42–4.253.40–9.40safer1.45–5.680.94–4.742.38–10.42actual2.001.003.00
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.523.629.14safe3.32–7.731.64–5.604.96–13.32safer2.72–8.321.10–6.133.82–14.46actual1.004.005.00
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.4849.75safe44.16–56.7943.44–56.07safer42.56–58.3941.84–57.67actual38.0062.00
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction448418865safe382–513353–482735–995safer365–531335–500700–1030actual368579947
Pass accuracy %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction85.7984.15safe81.57–90.0079.64–88.66safer80.27–91.3078.31–89.99actual81.0090.00
Fouls
17%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9215.3126.23safe8.07–13.7812.36–18.2520.43–32.03safer7.18–14.6611.45–19.1718.63–33.84actual13.0011.0024.00
Offsides
69%
15%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.061.484.53safe1.85–4.270.31–2.642.16–6.91safer1.51–4.610.00–2.971.49–7.58actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
30%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.644.69safe1.00–3.111.52–3.762.51–6.87safer0.72–3.381.23–4.051.95–7.43actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.450.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.983.746.72safe1.57–4.402.18–5.293.75–9.69safer1.18–4.791.75–5.722.93–10.51actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.62–2.55 0.36–2.81 | 3.00 | 1.14 0.29–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 1.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 4.00 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.58 3.73–7.44 3.23–7.94 | 5.00 | 3.62 1.92–5.33 1.45–5.80 | 3.00 | 9.21 5.65–12.77 4.68–13.74 | 8.00 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 14.97 11.27–18.67 10.24–19.70 | 8.00 | 11.20 7.82–14.58 6.89–15.51 | 10.00 | 26.17 19.09–33.25 17.13–35.21 | 18.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.96 6.44–11.48 5.58–12.34 | 4.00 | 7.21 4.91–9.52 4.12–10.31 | 8.00 | 16.17 11.36–20.99 9.70–22.65 | 12.00 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.98–5.15 1.45–5.68 | 2.00 | 2.84 1.42–4.25 0.94–4.74 | 1.00 | 6.40 3.40–9.40 2.38–10.42 | 3.00 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.32–7.73 2.72–8.32 | 1.00 | 3.62 1.64–5.60 1.10–6.13 | 4.00 | 9.14 4.96–13.32 3.82–14.46 | 5.00 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 50.48 44.16–56.79 42.56–58.39 | 38.00 | 49.75 43.44–56.07 41.84–57.67 | 62.00 | — | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 448 382–513 365–531 | 368 | 418 353–482 335–500 | 579 | 865 735–995 700–1030 | 947 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.79 81.57–90.00 80.27–91.30 | 81.00 | 84.15 79.64–88.66 78.31–89.99 | 90.00 | — | — | 56% 40% |
| Fouls | 10.92 8.07–13.78 7.18–14.66 | 13.00 | 15.31 12.36–18.25 11.45–19.17 | 11.00 | 26.23 20.43–32.03 18.63–33.84 | 24.00 | 17% 78% |
| Offsides | 3.06 1.85–4.27 1.51–4.61 | 3.00 | 1.48 0.31–2.64 0.00–2.97 | 0.00 | 4.53 2.16–6.91 1.49–7.58 | 3.00 | 69% 15% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.11 0.72–3.38 | 2.00 | 2.64 1.52–3.76 1.23–4.05 | 3.00 | 4.69 2.51–6.87 1.95–7.43 | 5.00 | 30% 18% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.98 1.57–4.40 1.18–4.79 | 3.00 | 3.74 2.18–5.29 1.75–5.72 | 2.00 | 6.72 3.75–9.69 2.93–10.51 | 5.00 | 31% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.